This market cycle is not a simple four-year cycle.

This market cycle is not a simple four-year cycle; the core reason lies in the changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycle. It is not that the cryptocurrency itself has undergone essential changes, but rather that the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments have had a profound impact on the market.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycle has a critical impact on the global economy and financial markets. For example, on September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate, lowering it to between 4.75% and 5.00%. This marks the first interest rate cut since March 2020 and signifies a shift in U.S. monetary policy from a tightening cycle to an easing cycle. This policy adjustment not only affects the domestic economy of the United States but also triggers changes in global capital flows.

In the cryptocurrency market, the changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycle also have a significant impact. The cryptocurrency market does not exist in isolation; its trends are profoundly influenced by the macroeconomic environment and monetary policy. Adjustments in the Federal Reserve's interest rates will change the direction and cost of capital flow, thereby affecting the inflow and outflow of funds in the cryptocurrency market.

Therefore, understanding the changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycle is crucial for analyzing and predicting market trends. Investors need to pay attention to the Federal Reserve's policy direction, combine it with macroeconomic data and market sentiment, and make more informed investment decisions.