The Federal Reserve pauses balance sheet reduction, Powell's speech is neutral, uncertainty is eliminated again, and the probability of a short-term bottom in the US stock market is increasing. Next, let's see if Bitcoin can smoothly return to 90,000.

Recently, I've been quite busy with work and studies, and I haven't had time to play with airdrops. Here's a brief update on my thoughts regarding the cryptocurrency market and US stocks.

First, I maintain the judgment that Bitcoin may be at the end of a bull market and the beginning of a bear market, but the end of a bull market and the beginning of a bear market does not mean there can't be a rebound, especially since it has already dropped nearly 30%.

As for whether the next wave can rebound to over 90,000? It completely depends on whether US stocks can truly experience a rebound in the short term.

The key now is whether US stocks can rebound? One by one, uncertainties are being eliminated, and we will see how Powell speaks tonight. As long as Powell's comments remain neutral, this period should mark the short-term bottom for US stocks.

Assuming US stocks rebound in the next month—considering that Bitcoin's performance this round has been stronger than many stocks in the US market—then it is very likely that Bitcoin will return to 90,000, at which point some altcoins will certainly rebound even more strongly. I will consider continuing to reduce my position, lowering it to at least below 65%. Moreover, the position will be concentrated in Bitcoin.

Regarding US stocks, since I believe there is a significant possibility that US stocks are at a bottom recently, I have been gradually building my position over the past two weeks, and my current position is around 90%. Once US stocks truly start to rebound, I will also consider reducing my position. Because the market for US stocks will be quite volatile this year.