📈 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Forecast - March 2025

⏳ Important Moment

On March 19, 2025, the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) will announce its monetary policy decision following the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Given the current economic situation, it is highly likely that the FED will continue to maintain a cautious policy to ensure financial stability.

📉 U.S. Economic Situation

GDP is forecasted to grow by 2% in 2025.

Inflation remains above the 2% target, with the PCE index fluctuating around 2.5%-2.6%.

The unemployment rate remains in the range of 4.2%-4.4%, indicating a stable labor market.

💭 Market Forecast

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the majority of experts assess that the FED will keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% with an 85%-90% probability. The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is quite low due to persistent inflationary pressures.

🌍 Influencing Factors

🔹 Inflation: The CPI at the beginning of 2025 has reached 3%, making it difficult for the FED to make a decision to ease policy.

🔹 Trade Policy: New tariff measures from the Trump administration may push commodity prices higher, adding inflationary pressure.

🔹 Labor Market: The stability of employment provides the FED with more room to be patient before changing policy.

🚀 FED Decision Prediction

✔️ Maintain interest rates: The level of 4.25%-4.5% is likely to be sustained.

✔️ Cautious message: The FED will emphasize that the next decision depends on economic data, rather than committing to immediate cuts.

✔️ Forecast adjustment: The “Dot Plot” chart may show fewer rate cuts in 2025 than previously forecasted.