Tonight is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and each meeting often comes with significant volatility, so it feels necessary to summarize the meeting time and make a rough judgment. Announcement at 2 AM tonight. It is highly likely there will be no rate cut, with the market dropping then rallying.

2025 Federal Reserve Meeting Schedule (including Beijing Time)

A total of 8 meetings in the year, with the 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 8th meetings including economic outlook and dot plot (greater impact).

Policy Announcement Time:

Interest Rate Decision: Next day at 14:00 Eastern Time (2 or 3 AM Beijing Time the following day, depending on daylight saving time).

Press Conference: Held 30 minutes after the decision announcement.

1. 1st Meeting

US Time: January 28-29

Beijing Time: January 30

Main Content: Interest Rate Decision (without Economic Outlook)

2. 2nd Meeting (Key Meeting)

US Time: March 18-19 (Currently Ongoing)

Beijing Time: March 20

Main Content: Interest Rate Decision + Economic Outlook (including Dot Plot)

3. 3rd Meeting

US Time: May 6-7

Beijing Time: May 8

Main Content: Interest Rate Decision (Regular Meeting)

4. 4th Meeting (Key Meeting)

US Time: June 17-18

Beijing Time: June 19

Main Content: Interest Rate Decision + Economic Outlook (including Dot Plot)

5. 5th Meeting

US Time: July 29-30

Beijing Time: July 31

Main Content: Interest Rate Decision (Regular Meeting)

6. 6th Meeting (Key Meeting)

US Time: September 16-17

Beijing Time: September 18

Main Content: Interest Rate Decision + Economic Outlook (including Dot Plot)

7. 7th Meeting

US Time: October 28-29

Beijing Time: October 30

Main Content: Interest Rate Decision (Regular Meeting)

8. 8th Meeting (Key Meeting)

US Time: December 9-10

Beijing Time: December 11

Main Content: Interest Rate Decision + Economic Outlook (including Dot Plot)

Core Judgment of the Path for Rate Hikes/Cuts in 2025

1. Probability of rate cuts is higher than rate hikes, but there is significant divergence in the path.

Baseline Scenario (1-2 Rate Cuts)

Trigger Conditions: If inflation falls below 2.5% and the unemployment rate exceeds 4.5%, the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in September or December.

Resistance Factors: Trump's tariff policy raises import costs, or causes core inflation to be stickier than expected.

Aggressive Scenario (3 Rate Cuts):

Premise: Rising risk of economic recession (e.g., two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), forcing the Federal Reserve to ease sooner.

Current Probability: Market Implied Probability is approximately 25% (as of March 2025).

Likelihood of Rate Hike:

Very Low Probability (<5%): Requires a surge in energy prices (e.g., escalation of conflicts in the Middle East) or an uncontrollable wage-inflation spiral.

Overall, the likelihood of a rate cut in June is still high, and the market shift may slowly begin in May, so the current strategy should primarily focus on short positions. Tonight, it is highly likely there will be a drop followed by a rally, then another drop, back and forth. My strategy is to short between 84000-85000.