80000 USD welded death line! If the BTC market maker doesn't push to 100,000 tonight, they will spike to 75,000!"
Today, BTC's hourly candlestick played more tricks than the market maker's tactics—opening at 86233 USD, it barely touched a high before plummeting to 76560, closing just at 83402, with a price fluctuation of nearly 10,000 USD, a drop of 3%, a vivid scene of violent liquidations! The trading volume was only 3526 coins, not even reaching the average volume of the past 5 days (4261 coins), clearly indicating the market maker's manipulation with left hand selling to the right.
The MACD is even more outrageous—DIF (155.6) and DEA (12.5) are pulling the red bars to 286.2, a typical 'overbought fishing line' that seasoned traders understand: this is either a market maker's fake drop to deceive investors or the last madness before a crash!
The latest news added fuel to the fire—The Federal Reserve issued a strong statement at midnight that 'there might be a 50 basis point rate hike in September,' causing BTC to flash crash by 3%, but BlackRock's surprise application for a Bitcoin futures ETF made the price bounce back to 83000 like a resurrection. Even more intense, Binance secretly raised BTC contract leverage to 150 times, clearly giving the market maker a magic weapon! The historical script is already written: when CPI data was released last month, BTC also showed an overbought MACD, resulting in a 15% crash in 24 hours. Is tonight a 'historical replay' or a 'reverse explosion'?
In the short term, BTC is now a 'bull-bear meat grinder.' Stop-loss orders are piled up around 83000, and the market maker is just waiting for a spike to collect heads! Referring to last week's ETH Cancun upgrade, which was clearly good news but resulted in a 10% crash, if BTC can't hold 80000, 75000 is absolutely untenable! However, on-chain data has some tricks—one whale address has consumed 12,000 BTC in three days, with the cost stuck at 82000, and Grayscale's holdings increased by 8000 coins against the trend, clearly indicating that institutions are secretly bottom-fishing.
Thinking about next year's halving narrative, every time in the half-year leading up to a halving, BTC has to put on a show of 'market maker's fake drop and real pump.' Before the 2020 halving, BTC dropped from 10,000 USD to 3,800, and then surged to 60,000. Is the market maker playing the same script again this time?
Short-term: 83000 is the critical point! Break through 85000 and directly go long, target 88000 (stop loss at 82000, run immediately if it breaks); if it drops below 80000, go short and aim to close at 75000.
Long-term: Countdown to halving + institutional bottom-fishing, BTC below 100,000 is a bargain, hold on to spot and wait for the market maker to pump for year-end bonuses!
Tonight, will it be a push to 100,000 with BlackRock, or will it be blown to ashes by 150 times leverage?