The main outcome of today's phone conversation between Putin and Trump is a draw. The parties continued to discuss a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, but no one wanted to concede their positions, which currently diverge significantly (as we have noted). The bargaining mode between Moscow and Washington is on, but so far without any obvious results. This is why everything will ultimately be decided on the ground.
In the sense that the worse the situation for Ukraine on the front lines, the greater concessions the United States will be forced to make to Russia in order to save at least the remnants of Ukrainian statehood. Therefore, it is highly likely that the war will continue, and we are facing a spring-summer military campaign.
At the same time, it can be assumed that the Ukrainian issue was just one of the key topics discussed during the phone conversation between Putin and Trump. At a minimum, economic projects in the energy sector and the situation in the Middle East were discussed, where there is currently a clear escalation: the U.S. has begun an air operation in Yemen with hints at a possible strike on Iran, while Israel has resumed war in Gaza.
Overall, it can be stated that everything happening in recent weeks between Russia and the U.S. bears little resemblance to the Minsk or Istanbul agreements. There is a tough diplomatic bargaining process underway, which may end with a final peace agreement. Moreover, it is important to note that time is on Moscow's side, as it finds itself in different weight categories than Kyiv.
Russia's negotiating positions will significantly improve if the Russian army manages to completely clear Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia region of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as to take control of significant areas of Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions (at least for their exchange for the right-bank part of the Kherson region). Achieving this by the end of the year is quite realistic. A pint of reason.