The months from now until mid-year are a golden window for dollar-cost averaging into quality coins. Based on the current market trend, it is highly likely that there will be a strong surge mid-year, making it a very cost-effective time to gradually position oneself.
Many people hold a pessimistic view of the market, especially after Bitcoin's drop from $110,000, leading to a temporary decline in market sentiment, with some even declaring the end of the bull market. However, if we analyze market data in depth, we are actually in the latter half of a bull market, not a bear market; one could even say that the spring of altcoins is about to arrive.
Why do we have such a judgment? Let us analyze it from several key data points.
First, the relationship between global M2 and Bitcoin prices has always been closely intertwined. M2 is a key indicator of market liquidity, and historical data shows that M2 expansion often accompanies surges in Bitcoin prices. Looking back at 2017, when the dollar strengthened and interest rates rose, Bitcoin experienced a brief adjustment, but with M2 expansion, Bitcoin entered an epic bull market. The current situation is similar: after the market correction in December, M2 has reached new highs, liquidity has improved, and the market is welcoming a new turning point. Therefore, the next round of Bitcoin's rise is likely to occur between June and July, and now is an excellent opportunity to position yourself at lower levels.
Secondly, the altcoin score index shows signals of a market bottom. This index measures the heat of the altcoin market; typically, a score below 25 indicates an extremely quiet market, suitable for bottom fishing, while a score above 75 suggests the market is overheated and needs caution. Currently, the index is approaching 25, indicating extremely low market sentiment, and historical experience tells us that this is often the best time to enter the market.
Additionally, the fear and greed index is also at extremely low levels, indicating that the market has entered an emotional freeze point. Looking back at past bull markets, we find that bull markets often do not end during periods of extreme fear, but rather conclude when there is extreme greed in the market. Therefore, now is the time for rational judgment, rather than following market emotional fluctuations.
So, in the face of the current market, what should we do?
First, stay calm and do not be influenced by short-term market fluctuations, but rely on data and trends for judgment.
Secondly, closely monitor the key retracement levels of Bitcoin prices, such as above $70,000, which are very cost-effective entry points.
Finally, carefully select high-quality altcoins and position yourself in advance for potential market breakout periods. When selecting altcoins, you can focus on factors such as chip distribution, the degree of control by major players, technical performance, community activity, and narrative logic. The current market is clearly differentiated; projects that truly possess speculative logic and market recognition are likely to achieve a 3-5 times or even higher increase during Bitcoin's final surge, while projects lacking major support may continue to decline.
Opportunities are often hidden in the coldest times of the market, and true investors can always see hope for the future amid panic.