After news broke that Telegram founder Pavel Durov's passport was retrieved by French authorities, Toncoin surged over 20%. The TON Association views this news as a victory for freedom of speech, online privacy, and innovation, reinforcing the mission of the project.

Is this rebound a sign of long-term momentum for TON, or just a short-term reaction? Here is my analysis:

Regarding the price surge of Toncoin (TON) after the return of Telegram founder Pavel Durov's passport, it is necessary to analyze the event background, market sentiment, and the fundamentals of the TON ecosystem comprehensively.

First, the conclusion: short-term optimism coexists with long-term caution.

Short-term: The event-driven rebound may continue, but be wary of the risk of a pullback after the emotional tide recedes, especially as regulatory trends are not yet fully clear.

Long-term: The core opportunity for TON lies in the conversion efficiency of Telegram users to the crypto ecosystem and whether it can build irreplaceable application scenarios. If ecosystem developers continue to flock in and regulation does not deliver a fatal blow, long-term momentum is to be expected; otherwise, it may become a volatile asset driven by narrative.

Investors are advised to pay attention to:

① Interaction data between Telegram users and TON;

② Judicial progress in the Durov case;

③ The real activity level of applications on the TON chain (such as transaction volume, number of unique addresses).

$TON