After significant declines two weeks ago and favorable CPI data last week, the US stock market has temporarily improved, recovering some losses. This also allowed Bitcoin to rise alongside the US stock market on Friday night, with the price briefly breaking through 85,000. However, the US stock market closed over the weekend, and the cryptocurrency market began to adjust. For the cryptocurrency market, this rebound is symbolic, and there are currently no clear reversal signals. At the same time, the funding and leverage levels are insufficient to support a reversal.
Currently, the overall daytime market is in a volatile trend, and we still need to wait for the evening fluctuations to gradually increase. The market remains relatively quiet, and this week we need to pay close attention to the news regarding the US interest rate decision, especially Powell's speech at that time, which requires special attention as it will directly affect the market trend. We also need to watch whether the US stock market can truly stop falling or continue to decline this week.
Personally, I believe that before the interest rate decision, Bitcoin still has an opportunity to rise further before choosing a direction after the interest rate announcement. The price levels currently observed are not very high, generally in the range of 86,000-88,000, while the key level to focus on below remains 80,000.
This week will usher in a super central bank week, and a series of major economic data releases may become a catalyst for Bitcoin's price changes. Below are the key time points and potential impacts:
March 17 (Monday): US retail sales data
The previous value of February retail sales data is 0.8%. If consumer data performs well, risk appetite may increase, and BTC could rebound. However, we must be wary of manipulators exploiting market sentiment for short-term manipulation.
March 18 (Tuesday): CPI inflation data
The previous value of February CPI year-on-year is 2.4%. If inflation falls below expectations, the market may bet on an interest rate cut in advance, and BTC may face an opportunity for price increases; if the data is hot, hawkish expectations may suppress BTC trends. It is expected that this CPI data will have limited fluctuations, and investors should avoid aggressive operations.
March 19 (Wednesday): Bank of Japan interest rate decision
The current interest rate is 0.25%, and there are rumors of a possible interest rate hike. If hawkish signals are released, the appreciation of the yen may drag down BTC; if a dovish stance is maintained, a weak yen may provide support for BTC.
March 20 (Thursday): FOMC interest rate decision
An interest rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.25% is expected. If a dovish signal is released, BTC may rebound significantly; if Powell's statements are hawkish, BTC may face downward pressure. The unemployment claims data is expected to be 225,000; if the data is stable, BTC may benefit from a stable economic outlook; if the data surges, risk-averse sentiment may suppress BTC trends.
Currently, the market opened strongly on Monday, providing ideal entry opportunities for day traders. Given that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are about to hold meetings, the market may face significant volatility. Close attention can be paid to price trends on Monday and Tuesday to develop reasonable intraday or weekly trading strategies.
However, it is worth noting that even if the overall trend is downward, a decline lacking strong rebounds is generally difficult to sustain. A sharp decline is usually triggered by unexpected events such as 'black swan' incidents, which are hard to predict. Proper stop-loss measures are key to avoiding potential risks.
After significant declines two weeks ago and favorable CPI data last week, the US stock market has temporarily improved, recovering some losses. This also allowed Bitcoin to rise alongside the US stock market on Friday night, with the price briefly breaking through 85,000. However, the US stock market closed over the weekend, and the cryptocurrency market began to adjust. For the cryptocurrency market, this rebound is symbolic, and there are currently no clear reversal signals. At the same time, the funding and leverage levels are insufficient to support a reversal.
Currently, the overall daytime market is in a volatile trend, and we still need to wait for the evening fluctuations to gradually increase. The market remains relatively quiet, and this week we need to pay close attention to the news regarding the US interest rate decision, especially Powell's speech at that time, which requires special attention as it will directly affect the market trend. We also need to watch whether the US stock market can truly stop falling or continue to decline this week.
Personally, I believe that before the interest rate decision, Bitcoin still has an opportunity to rise further before choosing a direction after the interest rate announcement. The price levels currently observed are not very high, generally in the range of 86,000-88,000, while the key level to focus on below remains 80,000.
This week will usher in a super central bank week, and a series of major economic data releases may become a catalyst for Bitcoin's price changes. Below are the key time points and potential impacts:
March 17 (Monday): US retail sales data
The previous value of February retail sales data is 0.8%. If consumer data performs well, risk appetite may increase, and BTC could rebound. However, we must be wary of manipulators exploiting market sentiment for short-term manipulation.
March 18 (Tuesday): CPI inflation data
The previous value of February CPI year-on-year is 2.4%. If inflation falls below expectations, the market may bet on an interest rate cut in advance, and BTC may face an opportunity for price increases; if the data is hot, hawkish expectations may suppress BTC trends. It is expected that this CPI data will have limited fluctuations, and investors should avoid aggressive operations.
March 19 (Wednesday): Bank of Japan interest rate decision
The current interest rate is 0.25%, and there are rumors of a possible interest rate hike. If hawkish signals are released, the appreciation of the yen may drag down BTC; if a dovish stance is maintained, a weak yen may provide support for BTC.
March 20 (Thursday): FOMC interest rate decision
An interest rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.25% is expected. If a dovish signal is released, BTC may rebound significantly; if Powell's statements are hawkish, BTC may face downward pressure. The unemployment claims data is expected to be 225,000; if the data is stable, BTC may benefit from a stable economic outlook; if the data surges, risk-averse sentiment may suppress BTC trends.
Currently, the market opened strongly on Monday, providing ideal entry opportunities for day traders. Given that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are about to hold meetings, the market may face significant volatility. Close attention can be paid to price trends on Monday and Tuesday to develop reasonable intraday or weekly trading strategies.
However, it is worth noting that even if the overall trend is downward, a decline lacking strong rebounds is generally difficult to sustain. A sharp decline is usually triggered by unexpected events such as 'black swan' incidents, which are hard to predict. Proper stop-loss measures are key to avoiding potential risks.