Last time, in 2020 it triggered massive Bull Run
MEGA🧵:
- What's Rate cuts,
- How it affects on crypto,
- Will history repeat with next bull run👇
➮ Before we start...
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2/ ➮ What are Fed rate cuts?
✯ When the economy slows, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, making borrowing more affordable for businesses and individuals.
✯ This leads to higher spending and investment, supporting economic recovery.
✯ More liquidity enters the system, potentially driving inflation.
3/ ➮ 2020 Rate Cuts
✯ Before the pandemic, interest rates were already low, sitting at 1.5% – 1.75%
✯ COVID-19 triggered two emergency rate cuts in a single month
✯ First cut: 50 bps (0.5%)
✯ Second cut: 100 bps (1%)
✯ This sent the federal funds rate to 0% – 0.25%, making borrowing easier than ever
✯ With credit now dirt cheap, liquidity surged into the markets
4/ ➮ Impact on Crypto
✯ Low borrowing costs and excess liquidity in 2020 accelerated crypto’s bull run as risk appetite soared
✯ The effects weren’t instant, but by 2021, inflation surged due to the liquidity overflow
5/ ➮ 2024 Rate Cuts
✯ The Fed cut rates in 2024, injecting fresh liquidity into the markets
✯ Cheap money flowed into high-risk assets, fueling a massive memecoin boom
✯ History repeated itself—just like in 2020, but this time even wilder
6/ ➮ 2025 Rate Cuts
✯ The ultra-low rates of 2020 led to inflation in 2021, fueled by supply chain breakdowns and increased spending
✯ In response, the Fed raised rates from 2022 onward, reaching 4.33% – 5.50%, the highest levels in 20 years
7/ ➮ FOMC March 18-19
✯ In 3 days, the Fed is set to begin rate cuts
✯ Most forecasts suggest a slow approach, with a 25 bps or 50 bps reduction on the first move
8/ ➮ 2020 vs. 2025 Rate Cuts
✯ Starting Rates – In 2020, rates were almost zero, but in 2025, they begin at 4.33%
✯ Speed of Cuts – 2020 saw aggressive reductions, while 2025 is expected to be a gradual process
9/ ➮ Conclusion
✯ Bitcoin and crypto will benefit from rate cuts, but not like in 2020
✯ The 2020 cuts came with near-zero rates, pandemic stimulus, and massive liquidity injections
✯ This cycle lacks those extreme conditions, and growth will be more gradual as liquidity enters the system slowly
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