According to the latest market data on March 17, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) is currently showing a volatile bottoming trend, fluctuating in the range of $1,865-$1,940, with market sentiment being cautious. Here are the key information summaries:
1. Price dynamics
Current price: about $1,890 (3 AM Beijing time), with an intra-day fluctuation of about 4.1%, continuing the recent weak pattern.
Short-term volatility: During the early morning hours, there were two unsuccessful attempts to test the resistance level of $1,930, falling back to a low of $1,865, forming a 'double top' pattern.
Key levels: Resistance is concentrated at $1,930-$1,950 (EMA30 trend line pressure), support is focused on $1,800-$1,830 (box bottom and on-chain liquidation critical point).
2. Technical analysis
Indicator signals:
MACD shows a reduction in volume with bearish dominance, DIF and DEA continue to move downward, and bearish momentum is strengthening;
RSI is approaching the oversold area (around 33), the lower Bollinger Band supports $1,741, and the middle band pressures $2,157.
Trend judgment: The daily level maintains a descending channel; if it breaks below $1,800, it may further drop to $1,600; if it stabilizes above $1,900, it may rebound towards $2,000.
3. Market driving factors
Bearish factors:
Short-term moving averages continue to diverge, with a bearish technical outlook;
Volatility among US-listed Chinese concept stocks is intensifying, indirectly affecting liquidity;
Spot ETH ETF continues to experience outflows (BlackRock ETHA saw a weekly outflow of $36.37 million).
Potential favorable factors:
On March 17, the Hooli test network was launched, with Layer 2 upgrades expected to enhance network efficiency;
The miner position index has risen to 0.85, indicating a decrease in selling pressure from long-term holders.
4. Operational suggestions
Short-term strategy:
Short positions: Short near $1,920-$1,950, stop loss at $1,980, target $1,850-$1,800;
Long positions: If there is a quick rebound after breaking below $1,830, a small position can be tried with a stop loss at $1,800.
Medium-term observation:
Pay attention to the breakthrough of $1,950; if it stabilizes or tests the historical high point of $2,200;
If it breaks below $1,800, it may further drop to $1,500.
5. Risk warning
Extreme volatility: The proportion of high-leverage trading is increasing, and daily declines exceeding 8% are frequent, requiring caution against liquidation risks;
Regulatory risk: The progress of the US SEC's approval of cryptocurrency ETFs and DeFi compliance policies may trigger short-term selling pressure;
Liquidity risk: Trading volume shrinks during the early morning hours, making prices susceptible to manipulation by major players or black swan events.
In summary, Ethereum may continue to show a volatile bearish pattern in the short term. It is recommended to operate flexibly in line with key resistance/support levels, control positions (single variety ≤ 10%), and implement strict stop-loss measures. Long-term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of Layer 2 upgrades and the return of institutional funds.
