Bitcoin's price dramatically broke below the 84000 USD mark during recent market fluctuations, currently quoted at 83882 USD per coin, with a daily drop of 0.38%. This is not just a simple price decline; there are undercurrents at play. Looking back to March 9, a nearly 3% drop in a single day acted like a shockwave, leaving market participants on edge. This decline comes after another strong shake-up, creating anxiety throughout the entire cryptocurrency market.
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin seems to have fallen into an invisible predicament since its single-day drop of over 4% on February 27. It has attempted multiple assaults on the high of 87000 USD, each charge challenging the ceiling set by the market, yet all have ended in failure, undoubtedly planting seeds of unease in investors' minds and clearly forming a strong resistance at high levels in the technical chart. On March 15, Bitcoin's price briefly fell below 84000 USD; although a rebound followed, the 24-hour increase quickly narrowed to 4.79%. This data acts as a barometer of market confidence, clearly indicating that current market confidence is in a rather fragile state. Investors are increasingly reviewing their investment strategies in light of such market conditions, with some conservative investors quietly withdrawing and holding back.
The pressure from policy levels is ever-present. Currently, many countries around the world are tightening regulations on cryptocurrencies. The United States, as a significant force in the cryptocurrency market, has recently intensified compliance reviews of exchanges. Regulatory agencies have conducted detailed investigations into trading processes, capital flows, and user information security at major cryptocurrency exchanges; any violations could face hefty fines or even trading suspensions. This has forced many exchanges to expend substantial human, material, and financial resources to meet regulatory requirements, significantly increasing operational costs. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China has once again reiterated the need to prevent cross-border risks related to virtual currencies. Against the backdrop of the ongoing internationalization of the Renminbi and the need to maintain financial market stability, cross-border trading of virtual currencies can easily become a breeding ground for capital outflows and illegal financial activities. Under this policy direction, Chinese financial institutions and payment platforms have further strengthened restrictions on virtual currency-related businesses, undoubtedly putting cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin in one of the world's largest potential markets in a severe developmental dilemma. The dual policy pressure has directly led some astute institutional investors to decisively choose to take profits, resulting in a massive sell-off of Bitcoin, further exacerbating the downward pressure on its price.
The market is in heated debate over the nature of Bitcoin's current downturn, with opinions largely divided into two camps: one believes it is a continuation of a bull market, while the other firmly believes that the trend has reversed. In this fierce debate, two key signals have become the focus of market attention. The first is the progress of the SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. If spot Bitcoin ETFs receive more approvals, it would be like opening a floodgate for funds, with a massive influx of institutional capital. These institutional investors possess substantial financial strength and professional investment teams; their entry would not only provide ample liquidity to the Bitcoin market but also significantly boost market confidence, potentially reversing the current decline and pushing Bitcoin prices back into an upward trajectory. The second is global inflation data, particularly the CPI data from Europe and the U.S. In today's globally integrated economy, any fluctuations in the European and American economies can have profound effects on global financial markets. If the CPI in the U.S. and Europe rises above expectations, the value-preserving capability of traditional financial assets will face severe challenges, while Bitcoin, widely regarded as an inflation-resistant asset, will instantly regain its appeal. Investors will refocus on Bitcoin due to the demand for diversification and value preservation, thus driving up its price. However, in the short term, the battle for the critical price level of 84000 USD will enter a heated phase. Bulls are attempting to build a strong defense above this price level to prevent further declines, while bears are aggressively trying to break through, opening up greater downward space. Both sides are fiercely contesting.
Here are some personal investment suggestions: Bitcoin can be considered for a short position in the range of 84700–85200, with a target price set at 83500–83000. To manage risk, set the risk control price at 85700. Ethereum (Auntie) can layout short positions in the range of 1920–1940, targeting 1880–1860, with the risk control level set at 1965.
It must be reiterated that the cryptocurrency market is highly uncertain and risky. Its price movements are influenced not only by technical and policy factors but also by various complex elements, including the global macroeconomic situation, sudden political events, and market sentiment. Therefore, when referring to the above information, investors must maintain a high degree of rationality and caution, avoiding blind following of trends. This content is for reference only and should not constitute investment advice.