The price of gold is approaching $3,000, while Bitcoin has shown weakness during this wave of market turmoil. Analyst NorthStar stated on the 13th that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen below a support line maintained for 12 years. If it remains below that support line after a month, it would indicate the end of this bull market. (Background: Former Premier Chen Chong: To cope with de-globalization, 'digital assets are like guns', Bitcoin and gold can resist inflation) (Background Supplement: Dongqu Weekly) Trump's tariffs affect allies, hopes for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, gold hits new highs while Bitcoin still struggles...) Under the deepening recession concerns due to Trump's tariff war, gold has become the preferred safe haven in the global market. Yesterday (14th), it broke through $3,000/ounce, setting a new historical high, with a market value exceeding $22 trillion. This week, Bitcoin, which faced turmoil alongside US stocks, is currently priced at $83,852, with a market value of about $1.65 trillion. Gold is now more than 13 times the market value of Bitcoin. Amid Trump's tariff policies causing great uncertainty in the global economy, the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' has obviously failed recently. Cointelegraph reported that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen below a long-standing upward support trend line for 12 years. Notable analyst NorthStar tweeted on the 13th that if Bitcoin remains below that level in a week, the situation will be very bad. If it stays below that support line after a month, it would mean that this bull market should be considered over, and the market could potentially worsen. Source: @NorthstarCharts Gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $10 billion in a month, while Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $5 billion. Gold spot prices have risen about 12.8% since the beginning of the year, while Bitcoin has fallen 11%. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold is about -0.5, but the correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq index over 52 weeks has reached 0.76, indicating that Bitcoin's trend is more closely aligned with the stock market and other risk markets. Additionally, the fund inflow data for gold and Bitcoin ETFs has shown divergence. As of March 14, US gold spot ETFs have attracted more than $6.48 billion in inflows this year, and the global gold ETF inflow has reached $23.18 billion. In contrast, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen a net outflow of about $1.46 billion this year. Charlie Morris, founder of ByTree and manager of BOLD ETF (which manages both Bitcoin and gold), pointed out to Coindesk that gold ETFs attracted a net inflow of $10 billion over the past 30 days, while Bitcoin ETFs faced a net outflow of $5 billion. However, he anticipates that this trend will reverse soon, stating, 'It is only a matter of time before the flow of funds reverses again, just like in the past.' Gold is expected to surge to $3,500 in Q3, while Bitcoin may test $65,000? Analysts from Macquarie Group estimate that gold's appeal as a safe haven will continue to strengthen, forecasting that gold spot prices could soar to $3,500 per ounce in the third quarter of this year. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end price target for gold to $3,100 per ounce last month. Cointelegraph analyzed that the current trends of Bitcoin and gold are in line with historical patterns, particularly the bearish divergence pattern of BTC/XAU from March 2021 to March 2022, characterized by rising prices and a declining Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicating that upward momentum is weakening. At that time, BTC/XAU initially retreated to the 50-2W exponential moving average (EMA) support level before ultimately plummeting by 60%, coinciding with a 68% drop in Bitcoin. Currently, BTC/XAU has completed a two-phase EMA retest, and with the RSI showing bearish divergence, momentum seems to be weakening, increasing the likelihood of further declines, especially if the ratio decisively breaks below the 50-2W EMA support level (~26 XAU). $65,000 could become the next potential downside target for Bitcoin, indicating that Bitcoin could fall about 40% from its historical high of $110,000. However, Nansen analysts believe that this drop is a 'pullback in a bull market' and that if the 50-2W EMA maintains support, the likelihood of a bull market recovery will increase. However, if it completely breaks below the EMA, Bitcoin may enter bearish territory. If the bearish divergence in BTC/XAU reoccurs, it could drag Bitcoin's downside target for 2025 towards the $34,850 support level of the 200-2W EMA. Source: Cointelegraph Related Reports Former Premier Chen Chong: To cope with de-globalization, 'digital assets are like guns', Bitcoin and gold can resist inflation. Coinbase CEO: 'Bitcoin standard' will replace gold, G20 will follow suit to buy BTC reserves. Musk may trigger a 'black swan' for gold; analysts say DOGE's investigation into gold reserves could drive funds towards Bitcoin. "The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen below a 12-year support line, raising concerns about a drop to $65,000... Is this the end of the current bull market?" This article was first published in Dongqu.
