Smart Money Watching These Levels – Don’t Miss This Setup
Asset: TON/USDT
Timeframe: 15-Minute
Market Type: Perpetual Futures
Current Price: $3.5562
Bias: Bullish with potential bearish retracement setup
📌 MARKET CONTEXT & STRUCTURE OVERVIEW:
TON has shown a powerful breakout with a clear Bullish BOS (Break of Structure) followed by aggressive volume and impulsive expansion. Price is currently consolidating in a range just under local resistance at $3.60, a critical decision point. Several Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and Order Blocks (OBs) have formed below, providing potential liquidity and re-entry zones.
However, RSI is elevated (~69) and showing signs of cooling, which suggests a short-term pullback or consolidation could precede the next leg up.
✅ PRIMARY BULLISH SETUP: "The Break & Hold Play"
Trade Idea: Buy the Dip or Breakout Confirmation
Entry Zone 1 (Pullback Entry): $3.50 – $3.52 (FVG + OB support)
Entry Zone 2 (Breakout Confirmation): Break and close above $3.60 on strong volume
Confirmation Criteria:
Bullish engulfing or 15m candle close above $3.60
Bounce from FVG with wick rejections + low volume on retrace
RSI reset to 50–60 zone and turns upward
Targets:
🎯 TP1: $3.70
🎯 TP2: $3.85
🎯 TP3: $4.00 (if momentum continues)
Stop Loss: $3.44 (Below structural low & FVG invalidation)
Rationale:
Market is in clear markup phase. Pullbacks into FVGs often provide premium re-entry points for smart money. If $3.60 breaks with strength, expect rapid continuation as liquidity above gets swept.
❌ ALTERNATE BEARISH SETUP: "The Fakeout Reversal"
Trade Idea: Fade the Resistance if Price Fails to Break Cleanly
Entry Zone: $3.58 – $3.62 (liquidity sweep + bearish rejection)
Confirmation Criteria:
Rejection candle (shooting star / bearish engulfing) at resistance
RSI forms bearish divergence (lower highs)
Failure to hold above BOS or close below $3.50 support
Targets:
🎯 TP1: $3.45 (last BOS)
🎯 TP2: $3.30 (major FVG below)
🎯 TP3: $3.20 (deeper retracement if selling intensifies)
Stop Loss: $3.66 (Above local high / liquidity trap)
Rationale:
Price is near a strong psychological and structural resistance. If bulls fail to maintain momentum, a short-term correction is likely as over-leveraged longs get flushed.
Key Technical Levels:
Major Resistance Zone: $3.60 – $3.65
Support Zones: $3.50 / $3.45 / $3.30
RSI Watch: Above 70 = Overbought | Below 50 = Trend weakening
Conclusion:
TON is showing signs of bullish strength, but $3.60 is a pivotal level. Traders should prepare for either breakout continuation or fakeout rejection. Wait for confirmation before entering either side. Smart money is likely watching this zone closely — plan your trades, manage risk, and stay patient.
