Winners and Losers in Trump’s Global Trade War
President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade war has sent shockwaves through the global economy, reshaping industries, stock markets, and international trade relations. By imposing steep tariffs on imports from countries like China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, Trump aims to boost American manufacturing and pressure foreign nations into negotiating new trade deals.
However, these tariffs are creating clear winners and losers in the U.S. and beyond. While some industries—like steel and aluminum—are booming, others—such as automakers, tech companies, and the alcohol industry—are taking severe losses. Additionally, retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and the EU are adding fuel to the fire, further disrupting global markets.
Let’s break down the biggest winners and losers in Trump’s trade war and how international players are fighting back.
Winners: Who’s Profiting from Trump’s Trade Policies?
1. U.S. Steel and Aluminum Manufacturers
Trump’s 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum was designed to protect and revive American metal production—and so far, it’s working. The tariffs have driven up domestic demand, helping U.S. steelmakers like:
U.S. Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs, which are experiencing higher orders and rising stock prices.
Century Aluminum, the largest U.S. primary aluminum producer, which expects a long-term boost in production.
Hot-rolled steel prices jumped to $945 per ton, the highest level since February 2024.
Aluminum prices increased by 45 cents per pound, passing $990 per metric ton in a single day.
For U.S.-based steel and aluminum producers, the trade war is proving to be a golden opportunity.
2. Anheuser-Busch (Bud Light, Michelob, etc.)
Unlike competitors that rely on imported ingredients, Anheuser-Busch is thriving because:
99% of its beer is brewed in the U.S.
99% of its ingredients are sourced from American farmers, keeping costs stable.
The company’s stock has risen 24% this year, as rivals struggle with higher import costs.
This domestic advantage shields Anheuser-Busch from the worst effects of the trade war, giving it a competitive edge over foreign beer brands.
3. Warehouse Owners and Storage Businesses
With companies stockpiling goods in anticipation of future tariffs, the warehouse industry is booming. Demand for storage space is rising rapidly, benefiting commercial real estate firms and logistics providers. Businesses fear even higher tariffs in the coming months, leading to a surge in warehouse leasing.
4. Precious Metals Market (Gold & Silver)
Economic uncertainty caused by the trade war has pushed investors toward safe-haven assets like gold and silver. As a result:
Gold prices have risen 13% to over $3,000 per ounce.
Silver has climbed 14% to $34 per ounce.
Investors often turn to precious metals during times of economic instability, and Trump’s tariffs have created the perfect environment for gold and silver markets to flourish.
5. U.S. Tech Companies (AI and Software Firms)
While many tech companies are struggling with supply chain issues, those in software and AI development are largely unaffected. Companies like:
Palantir, which has strong government contracts and AI investments.
Oracle, Microsoft, and Salesforce, which don’t rely on Chinese manufacturing.
These firms are less exposed to supply chain risks, allowing them to weather the trade war storm better than hardware-dependent tech giants.
Losers: Who’s Struggling Under Trump’s Trade War?
1. Apple and Other Tech Hardware Companies
Trump’s 20% tariff on Chinese imports has been devastating for companies that depend on China’s factories, particularly Apple.
Apple’s stock is down 13% since January as higher tariffs increase costs.
Relocating production to the U.S. could take over five years and cost the company more than $20 billion.
Investors are worried about supply chain disruptions, putting pressure on the company’s valuation.
Many hardware-focused tech firms are facing similar challenges, as they struggle with rising production costs and delays in supply chains.
2. U.S. Automakers (Ford, GM, Tesla)
The automobile industry is taking a major hit as raw material costs skyrocket due to tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.
Trump’s tariffs are adding an estimated $400 to the cost of every U.S.-made car.
Tesla’s stock has plummeted 36% this year, in part due to rising production expenses.
Ford and GM are struggling with higher costs and declining investor confidence.
Automakers now face tough choices: absorb the costs, pass them onto consumers (which could hurt sales), or shift supply chains—a move that could take years.
3. Alcohol Industry (European Wine & American Whiskey)
The trade war has turned into an alcoholic standoff between the U.S. and the EU. Trump recently imposed a 200% tariff on European wine and champagne in response to:
The EU’s 50% tariff on American whiskey, which has crippled U.S. whiskey exports.
Retailers scrambling to stockpile bottles before the new tariffs drive up prices.
A $109 bottle of French wine expected to cost $375 once tariffs kick in.
This escalating trade battle has left importers, distributors, and retailers struggling with unpredictable price hikes and uncertain supply chains.
4. California’s Almond Industry
California is the world’s largest almond producer, but the trade war has put one-third of its exports at risk due to:
New retaliatory tariffs from the European Union.
Reduced demand from international buyers, leading to financial losses for U.S. farmers.
Industry experts warn that it could take years for American farmers to recover from lost exports.
Retaliation: How Other Countries Are Fighting Back
Canada: $21 Billion in Retaliatory Tariffs
Canada has responded to Trump’s tariffs by imposing $21 billion in new tariffs on:
American farm products (especially dairy and produce).
U.S. whiskey, with some Canadian retailers boycotting Tennessee whiskey altogether.
China & Mexico: Hitting U.S. Automakers and Tech Firms
China imposed a 20% tariff on American imports, impacting companies like Tesla and Apple.
Mexico introduced new tariffs targeting key U.S. exports.
Stock Market Chaos
The trade war has spooked investors, sending the stock market into a tailspin:
The Nasdaq has lost 2,300 points in just 30 days, a 12% drop.
The S&P 500 has fallen more than 10% from its recent highs.
The Dow Jones has dropped 1,000 points in the last 30 days, a 2.4% decline.
Despite the turmoil, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed concerns, saying:
> “We’re focused on the real economy. I’m not concerned about a little bit of volatility over three weeks.”
Final Thoughts: What’s Next?
Trump’s trade war is creating clear winners and losers, with some industries booming and others suffering huge losses. The long-term consequences of these tariffs remain uncertain, but investors and businesses are already feeling the impact.
The big question now is:
Will these trade wars lead to better trade deals for the U.S.?
Or will they cause long-term damage to industries that rely on international markets?
With global markets on edge, all eyes are on the next policy moves from Trump and his international trade rivals.