To be honest, in this situation, I wouldn't go all in, mainly because:

1. The core issue is that the recent market crash was triggered by Trump's reckless statements. Today tariffs are increased, tomorrow they are not, and the day after they are raised by 250%... The unpredictable chaos has caused U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market to drop even faster.

2. Some market opinions suggest that Trump is deliberately creating chaos and lowering stock prices to reduce expected income, lower inflation, and push down interest rates, whether intentionally or not, this is the reality.

3. The federal government has $37 trillion in debt, and this year's debt interest is expected to be $1.3 trillion. Every day, when Trump opens his eyes, he has to repay billions of dollars. The federal government's revenue in 2024 is projected to be $4.9 trillion, with total expenditures of $6.75 trillion, resulting in a deficit of $1.8 trillion. Debt interest accounts for over 26% of fiscal revenue, with new deficits each year. At this snowballing rate, Trump won't last four years, and the U.S. government will face a debt default.

Therefore, Trump and Musk are very eager to cut $1 trillion in spending and also need to convert short-term government bonds to long-term bonds. However, the current benchmark interest rate in the U.S. is 4.5%. Before doing the debt swap, they need to lower interest rates first. If the interest rate is reduced by 100 basis points before the debt swap, it would save about $400 billion in interest each year.

4. Trump's policies are unpredictable, and inflation data after the implementation of tariffs has not yet been revealed. If inflation increases, corporate costs will inevitably affect economic development, which means a recession is possible. Changes in the fundamentals could lead to further declines in U.S. stocks, which would also affect the cryptocurrency market.

5. Although recent macro data has led traders to increase their bets on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at least twice, it is uncertain whether this prediction will change, or even lead to rate hikes, if inflation worsens after tariffs are officially implemented. The uncertainty is too great.

6. Why is suppressing stock prices so important for controlling inflation? Recent data shows that the top 10% of earners in the U.S. account for 60% of consumption. The rich are getting richer through investments, and it is nearly impossible to lower inflation without reducing the assets of the wealthy. Moreover, historically, after interest rate cuts, U.S. stocks rise, which in turn leads to an increase in inflation. To lower stock prices while cutting rates, we can only rely on Trump's mouth, which continues to create chaos and lead the economy into a recession.

#比特币反弹 The cryptocurrency market also has room for decline.

Therefore, a gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. I will not be bottom-fishing, but the cost-effectiveness of a dollar-cost averaging strategy is still quite high at the moment.