A major crash could happen at any moment! Maintaining a sense of uncertainty about the future may be the most valuable quality of a 'qualified investor'.

After this round of significant decline, I have had quite a few reflections. Most people always try to predict market trends, but in reality, short-term market fluctuations are extremely difficult to grasp. As ordinary investors, if we are always thinking about predicting the market, we are actually catering to the deeply rooted 'blind confidence' in human nature — this psychological weakness makes people mistakenly believe they can control the unknown. Once caught up in predictions and continuously expressing this to the outside world or arguing with others, it is easy to lead to a reinforcement of one's own cognition.

From a biological perspective, male animals often tend to defend their viewpoints, even placing 'correctness' above survival. If the market trends contradict their predictions, it not only fails to prompt reflection but may even lead to further commitment to maintain their so-called 'dignity'. This psychological trap gradually ensnares individuals in obsession, ultimately leading to painful consequences.

Therefore, as we aspire to be long-term players, we should try to minimize our predictions about market trends and avoid arguing with others about market direction. This behavior essentially only deepens one's inherent cognition, while the market itself is always filled with 'reflexivity' — when more and more people form the same expectations, the market often moves in the opposite direction. For those of us who aspire to be long-term players, we should predict less and refrain from arguing with others about market direction; doing so only strengthens our self-cognition and does not benefit making reasonable judgments.