1. Ethereum (ETH)
Core Trend:
Neutral to Weak: Short-term constrained by market liquidity contraction (institutional selling + ETF fund outflows), but long-term technical upgrades (such as Dencun sharding expansion) support ecological value. Linked to Bitcoin: If Bitcoin strengthens, ETH may passively follow suit, but the increase may be weaker than mainstream coins (funds are more inclined towards high-performance chains like SOL).
Key Driving Factors:
Institutional Movements: Changes in large fund holdings (such as BlackRock reducing positions) determine the intensity of short-term selling pressure. On-chain Activity: Whether a decrease in gas fees stimulates ecological activity (DeFi, Layer 2).
2. TST (Test Token)
Core Trend:
High-risk speculation: Purely dependent on exchange hype and retail FOMO sentiment, with no fundamental support, the long-term probability of going to zero is extremely high. Severe volatility: Short-term influenced by Binance announcements and whale manipulation, may experience pulse-like rises and falls, but difficult to sustain.
Key Driving Factors:
Exchange Dynamics: Whether Binance adds a TST liquidity pool or launches derivatives. Community Heat: A sudden increase in social media discussions may trigger short-term speculation.
3. TRUMP (Political Concept Coin)
Core Trend:
Long-term Downward: The project party highly controls the supply (80% of tokens are not unlocked), the selling pressure will continue to suppress prices, and consensus collapses after the political concept's popularity fades. Event-driven: The U.S. election cycle or policy changes may trigger short-term speculation, but difficult to change the downward trend.
Key Driving Factors:
Unlocking Risk: Gradual release of holdings by the Trump family (starting Q2 2025). Political Hype: Whether Trump releases new signals on crypto policy (such as campaign promises).
Trends Correlation Among the Three
ETH Dominance: A strengthening ETH may boost market risk appetite, but funds are more inclined to flow into mainstream coins rather than TST/TRUMP-type air coins. Liquidity Squeeze: If Bitcoin rises sharply, TST/TRUMP liquidity may accelerate depletion (retail exit). Sentiment Cycle: In times of market panic, TST/TRUMP declines far exceed the market; during euphoria, there may be a brief explosive surge.
One-sentence Conclusion
ETH: Short-term volatility, long-term depends on ecological progress vs institutional selling pressure. TST: Pure gambling tool, trend downward, limited to very short-term speculation. TRUMP: Political bubble bursting, short-selling at highs is better than bottom-fishing.