财经少华
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If Bitcoin falls to a minimum of $80,000, the market outlook is uncertain, with four trends worth paying attention to:
1. No catalyst driving, slow bleeding: The flow of U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve funds is moderate, and in the absence of new stimuli, market enthusiasm declines within 1-8 weeks, leading to capital outflow or gradual sell-off. A decrease in ETF inflows, reduced holding interest, and contraction of market liquidity are key signals, affecting low to moderate levels but persistently.
2. Animal spirits trigger a relief rebound: Bitcoin's strategic reserve may temporarily boost market sentiment. If MicroStrategy issues new stock to buy Bitcoin and the stock market rises, within the next 7-14 days, signals such as a surge in ETF inflows, MicroStrategy stock issuance, and a rising stock market may appear, causing Bitcoin prices to spike briefly, with moderate but short-lived impact.
3. Increased adoption brings transformation: Although the strategic reserve does not immediately lead to capital inflow, it releases positive signals. Retail investors may observe advancements in Bitcoin applications, and institutions may accelerate their entry. Banks and others may view this as a preliminary signal for incorporating BTC. If, over a period of more than 3 months, signals such as increased risk exposure from large institutions and entry of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds appear, it will have a disruptive impact on the Bitcoin market.
4. Liquidity-driven steady rise: Some viewpoints suggest that M2 money supply dominates Bitcoin prices. Currently, M2 is bottoming out and recovering, with Bitcoin prices typically lagging by about 20 days. Within 20-40 days, signals such as continued M2 expansion, reduction of Treasury account (TGA), and inflow of stablecoin funds may appear, suggesting that Bitcoin may experience a volatile upward trend in the coming weeks, showing a medium-term stable upward trajectory.
1. No catalyst driving, slow bleeding: The flow of U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve funds is moderate, and in the absence of new stimuli, market enthusiasm declines within 1-8 weeks, leading to capital outflow or gradual sell-off. A decrease in ETF inflows, reduced holding interest, and contraction of market liquidity are key signals, affecting low to moderate levels but persistently.
2. Animal spirits trigger a relief rebound: Bitcoin's strategic reserve may temporarily boost market sentiment. If MicroStrategy issues new stock to buy Bitcoin and the stock market rises, within the next 7-14 days, signals such as a surge in ETF inflows, MicroStrategy stock issuance, and a rising stock market may appear, causing Bitcoin prices to spike briefly, with moderate but short-lived impact.
3. Increased adoption brings transformation: Although the strategic reserve does not immediately lead to capital inflow, it releases positive signals. Retail investors may observe advancements in Bitcoin applications, and institutions may accelerate their entry. Banks and others may view this as a preliminary signal for incorporating BTC. If, over a period of more than 3 months, signals such as increased risk exposure from large institutions and entry of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds appear, it will have a disruptive impact on the Bitcoin market.
4. Liquidity-driven steady rise: Some viewpoints suggest that M2 money supply dominates Bitcoin prices. Currently, M2 is bottoming out and recovering, with Bitcoin prices typically lagging by about 20 days. Within 20-40 days, signals such as continued M2 expansion, reduction of Treasury account (TGA), and inflow of stablecoin funds may appear, suggesting that Bitcoin may experience a volatile upward trend in the coming weeks, showing a medium-term stable upward trajectory.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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