Macroeconomic Analysis

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This is a continuation of my previous post on macroeconomic analysis. You can check that on my profile.

In this post, there is important information that you should understand that based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the FED will not cut interest rates on March 19, 2025, remaining at 425-450 basis points, with a probability of reaching over 90%.

You should also pay attention to March 19, 2025, as the FED will also release economic projection data for the future, called the Summary of Economic Projections.

This SEP itself is a projection and reference for the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rate cuts and how many times it will happen in 2025.

Scenario 1 = Bullish

If the FED revises the interest rate cut target by increasing it up to 3 times to the range of 350-375 basis points, and is also supported by the Median in its Dot Plot showing the same. If this happens, it will align with what is shown by the CME FedWatch Tool. High-risk assets such as technology stocks and Crypto (Bitcoin) may become attractive to look at.

Scenario 2 = Bearish

The FED does not revise at all and remains at 2 interest rate cuts in 2025, or even reduces the interest rate cut plan to only 1 time. If this happens, a major crash will occur and the likelihood of recession will increase. Safe-haven assets may become the best option to secure cash.