On March 14, gold broke through $3000/ounce, reaching a new historical high, with an increase of over 14% this year. The total market capitalization of gold surpassed $22 trillion. The Nasdaq index rose by 2.4%, the S&P 500 increased by 2%, and the Dow Jones index went up by 1.5%. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next Wednesday will determine whether to halt the balance sheet reduction.
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Decrypt reports that the U.S. Treasury Department met with executives from three cryptocurrency custody companies this week to discuss how to safeguard the U.S. BTC reserves. The Treasury is currently in the research phase and has not yet formed a clear stance, actively consulting industry insiders. Currently, it leans towards having a third-party institution manage U.S. BTC reserves, with the long-term goal of the U.S. government ultimately achieving self-custody. CoinDesk reports that the U.S. Senate Banking Committee has advanced a regulatory bill for stablecoins in the cryptocurrency industry, which now needs to pass the overall Senate, while the House of Representatives has a similar version waiting for approval. This is an important first step in sending the bill to Trump for signature to become law. U.S. Congressman Byron Donalds plans to submit a legislative proposal to formally legislate Trump's recent executive order aimed at establishing a strategic BTC reserve and U.S. digital asset reserves. If the bill is approved, it will ensure that the policy cannot be rescinded by future presidential executive orders. The cryptocurrency bill HB701 in Kentucky has passed the Senate and is awaiting the governor's signature. This bill protects custody rights, exempts nodes from currency transmission rules, and prohibits imposing new taxes on payments. The bill passed both houses without a single opposing vote. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) confirmed receipt of Fidelity's ETH ETF staking proposal and Franklin's ETH ETF staking proposal. Cb Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated that Vermont has withdrawn its lawsuit against Cb regarding staking services today, as we have always said, staking services are not securities, and Congress must pass comprehensive legislation that takes into account the new functions of digital assets (such as staking).
Bloomberg reports that Stark Bank SA, a Brazilian bank backed by Bezos, has made cryptocurrency startups one of its key focus areas this year, betting that this industry, which traditional banks avoid, will drive growth. Analyst Benjamin Cowen states that the current ETH situation is similar to 2019, and a change in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be needed for ETH/BTC to rebound. In 2019, ETH's price fell below its support level just before the Fed ended its quantitative tightening policy. People found it very difficult to make money during this cycle because the monetary policy had not changed. In the previous cycle, the market witnessed a shift in monetary policy a year before the halving. We are currently in the year following the halving, but the quantitative tightening policy has not changed. The Fed has only slightly reduced the scale and slowed down the pace, but has never truly stopped. CryptoQuant analysts indicate that the market has entered an oversold range after a significant correction, and even without further drastic declines, the selling pressure in the market has been fully released, making it a favorable area for potential upward movements without needing further severe downturns. On March 14, gold broke through $3000/ounce, reaching a new historical high, with an increase of over 14% this year. The total market capitalization of gold surpassed $22 trillion. During the same period, BTC was reported at $85,000, with a market cap of $1.7 trillion, approximately 7.5% of gold's market cap. Data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. February inflation PPI (Producer Price Index) fell to 3.2%, below the expected 3.3% and previous 3.7%; the PPI month-on-month rate was 0%, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.6%.
Friday's data showed that the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index preliminary value was 57.9 (expected 63.1, previous 64.7), indicating a sharp decline in U.S. consumer confidence due to concerns that Trump's comprehensive tariff policy may undermine the economy. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin downplayed the risks of a U.S. economic recession and the current stock market sell-off, suggesting that it was a rational adjustment to Trump's aggressive trade strategies and that a 5% to 10% adjustment in the S&P or Nasdaq indexes was reasonable, advising investors not to overreact. On Friday, the Nasdaq index rose by 2.4%, the S&P 500 increased by 2%, and the Dow Jones index went up by 1.5%, while BTC rose by 5% to $85,000. The White House digital assets working group executive director Bo Hines stated that Trump plans to establish a 'no-scale-limit' BTC reserve and execute it in a 'budget-neutral' manner. This move is interpreted by the market as elevating BTC to a strategic status equivalent to the U.S. dollar. Analyst The Bitcoin Historian called this an 'absolutely huge game changer' and advised investors to closely monitor economic and policy trends and manage risks effectively. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor stated that BTC will become the largest asset by market capitalization globally within the next 48 months. Bn CEO Richard Teng commented on Trump's decision to create a BTC reserve, stating that this is a good first step; the question is not whether to allocate but whether to allocate 2% or 5%, as the long-term driving force is very strong.
J.P. Morgan's strategist report indicates that the most severe phase of the U.S. stock market correction may have ended, with the credit market showing low recession risks. Recent market adjustments are driven more by quantitative funds adjusting positions rather than fundamental investors or actively managed investors reassessing U.S. recession risks. TradingView data shows that BTC's market share has reached 62.29%, a new high since March 2021, while the market seems to have hit a freezing point. Historical data shows that last November, when BTC's market share surged above 60%, altcoins began a small bull market; in 2019 and 2021, BTC's market share reached a peak of 70%, followed by a significant bull market. The Altcoin Season Index is currently reported at 13, the lowest level since September 3, 2024, significantly down from the February average of 43. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has reintroduced a BTC bill in the Senate, proposing to purchase 1 million BTC over five years, at 200,000 BTC per year. The bill adds terms for the ESF to coordinate BTC purchases. The ESF is a reserve fund of the U.S. Treasury, with approximately $39 billion in assets. The executive branch's BTC acquisitions may utilize this fund, and the new version clearly states that the profits from revaluing the Federal Reserve's gold will be used to purchase BTC.
On Friday, U.S. stock indices and gold rebounded, with the Nasdaq index increasing by 2.4%; gold prices rose to $3000/ounce; BTC rebounded to $85,000, up by 5%. Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will rise to $3100-$3300 by the end of 2025. Analyst Marcus Garvey believes that if Trump pressures the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, thereby challenging the Fed's independence, the rise of gold will accelerate. Currently, BTC's market cap is approximately $1.7 trillion, which is about 7.5% of gold's $22 trillion market cap, leading many to focus on BTC's market cap potentially reaching 10%-20% of gold's market cap. The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting next Wednesday to announce the latest interest rate decision, and analysts believe that the current bull market is struggling because the Fed has only slightly reduced the tightening scale and has not truly entered a monetary easing phase. In the upcoming monetary policy meeting, the market will look for information regarding interest rate cuts and halting the balance sheet reduction; eventually, these will come, and they've been awaited for a long time. With the previous CPI and PPI inflation rates declining, and the backdrop of a weak U.S. economy and employment, there is hope that Powell can adopt a dovish tone in this meeting to pave the way for an interest rate cut in June, helping the market to stop falling and recover.
