Will 2025 be a bear market?
In response to this incessant question, our view is:
Typically, a bull market peaks 12-18 months after a halving, with the 2024 Bitcoin halving leading to a bull market peak between mid-2025 and early 2026.
This suggests that 2025 may be at least partially in a bull market or a transitional phase, rather than a bear market. However, the late stages of a bull market are often accompanied by corrections, and a pullback may occur by the end of the year.
The market performance in 2025 will also depend on the global economic situation (such as whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates), regulatory policies (such as the U.S. stance on cryptocurrencies), and technological developments (such as Layer 2 solutions or the rise of new narratives). Bear markets typically occur after the bursting of a bull market bubble; if 2025 is the peak of the bull market, then the bear market may emerge in 2026 rather than in 2025.