• If XRP captured the entire global remittance liquidity, it seems likely that its price could reach around $4,100 per token, based on the current usage pattern as a measure of encompassing all cross-border transfers.
• The estimate is based on the assumption that velocity (the number of times each token is transferred annually) remains constant, but it may change with increased demand.
• There are complications regarding the definition of 'global remittance liquidity,' which may affect the final estimate.
Simplified Explanation
Context
XRP is a cryptocurrency used in the Ripple network to facilitate cross-border financial transfers quickly and at low cost. If XRP becomes responsible for all cross-border transfers, its demand will significantly increase, leading to a rise in its price.
How was the price calculated?
• The volume of global cross-border transfers is about $190 trillion annually according to Cross-border payments global market size 2030 | Statista.
• Based on the current usage of XRP, it seems likely that the price will increase to around $4,100 per token to meet this demand, assuming that the turnover speed (the number of times each token is transferred annually) remains constant at around 0.09.
• However, if the turnover speed increases with increased usage, the price might be lower, perhaps around $327 if the velocity is 1 (i.e., transferring every token once a year).
Unexpected Details
Surprisingly, the current price of XRP (around $2.30 in March 2025) could increase by approximately 1,782 times to $4,100, reflecting the potential massive demand if XRP becomes the sole means for cross-border transfers.
Detailed Notes
Introduction
XRP is the native cryptocurrency of the XRP Ledger, a network used to facilitate international financial transfers quickly and at low cost. The question concerns estimating the price of XRP if it captured the entire global remittance liquidity, a concept that requires precise interpretation. In these notes, we will discuss estimates based on available data, focusing on the volume of cross-border transfers and how this affects the price of XRP.
Definition of 'global remittance liquidity'
• 'Global remittance liquidity' might mean either the total value of cross-border transfers annually (flow) or the total value of money available for transfer at any moment (stock).
• Based on the data, it seems likely that the first definition (annual flow) is the most appropriate, as the volume of cross-border transfers is approximately $190 trillion annually in 2023, according to Cross-border payments global market size 2030 | Statista.
• If the intention is the stock (like money in execution at any moment), that may equate to the daily value of transfers multiplied by the average execution time, potentially leading to different estimates.
Current Price Analysis of XRP
• The current circulating supply of XRP is about 58 billion tokens, with a price of approximately $2.30 per token in March 2025, resulting in a market capitalization of about $133.4 billion according to XRP price today, XRP to USD live price, market cap and chart | CoinMarketCap.
• The current volume of transfers on the XRP network is about 2 million transactions per day, with an average value per transaction of approximately $17.5, resulting in an annual total value of about $12.775 billion.
Calculating the New Price
• To determine the new price, we used the economic exchange equation: total annual transaction value = market cap * velocity (the number of times each token is transferred annually).
• In the current scenario, the velocity is estimated at around 0.096 ($12.775 billion / $133.4 billion).
• If the velocity remains constant at 0.096, the new market cap to handle $190 trillion would be $190 trillion / 0.096 ≈ $1,979.17 trillion.
• New price = new market cap / circulating supply = $1,979.17 trillion / 58 billion tokens ≈ $34,126.05 per token.
• However, if the velocity increases with increased usage (such as reaching 1, meaning transferring every token once a year), the price would be 190 trillion / 58 billion ≈ $3,275.86 per token.
Additional Analysis
• Surprisingly, the price could increase by approximately 1,484 times to $34,126 if the velocity remains constant, reflecting the potential massive demand.
• However, if the velocity increases due to increased usage, the price might be lower, making the final estimate range between $3,276 and $34,126, with a tendency towards the higher figure based on current data.
Final Considerations
• There are complexities regarding how velocity changes with increased usage, which may impact the final price.
• This estimate should be taken as a rough estimate, as it is based on assumptions about velocity and future usage.
Disclaimer: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The opinions expressed in this article may include the author's personal views and do not reflect my opinion. We encourage readers to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. I am not responsible for any financial losses.
