Market Reconstruction Under Extreme Assumptions
If Ethereum (ETH) goes to zero, it seems like the end of the crypto world, but it will actually trigger a systemic transfer of wealth. This article reveals how ten types of hidden participants can utilize market collapse to achieve excess returns, based on the theory of reflexivity in finance, game theory, and on-chain data.
1. Extreme Short Sellers: The Ultimate Players of Institutional Arbitrage
Using the 'cross-margining mechanism' of exchanges, when ETH goes to zero, short sellers will receive all market long position margins.
Referencing the negative pricing event of crude oil futures in 2020, institutions shorting WTI made $20 billion in a single day.
Currently, the open positions in ETH perpetual contracts are about $5 billion; if it goes to zero, the theoretical short profit ≈ open positions × leverage multiple (taking the median of 20 times).
2. Competing Chain Developers: Predators of Ecological Vacuums
Ethereum occupies 68% of the smart contract market share (Q2 2024 data), and its collapse will release liquidity on the scale of tens of billions of dollars.
Layer 1s like Solana and Avalanche will attract developers and users; for every 1% of ETH ecosystem value that SOL captures, the theoretical upside could reach 30 times.
During the Bitcoin fork in 2017, BCH's market value briefly reached 30% of BTC's.
3. Privacy Protocol Builders: Arms Dealers of the Dark Web Economy
Currently, the daily value of ETH laundered through Tornado Cash exceeds $240 million.
If ETH goes to zero, Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC) will become hard currency in the dark web; based on 2023 FBI seizure data, the demand for asset transfer in the dark web will increase by 400%.
Privacy protocol transaction fee income = dark web transaction volume × 0.3% (current average), potential profit increase ≈ 200 times.
4. Legal Recovery Groups: The Vultures of Class Action Lawsuits
According to Section 11 of the U.S. Securities Act, investors can sue the Ethereum Foundation for false statements; referencing the Ripple lawsuit, the settlement amount could reach 5% of the market value.
- Based on ETH's historical total transaction volume of $4.8 trillion, the potential claims amount ≈ $240 billion.
Professional law firms use a risk-sharing model, taking a 30%-40% cut, with single case earnings potentially reaching tens of billions.
5. Quantum Computing Pioneers: Hunters of Cryptographic Vulnerabilities
Google's Quantum Supremacy experiment shows that quantum computers may crack elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) by 2030.
If the ETH private key is cracked in advance, one can acquire the remaining on-chain assets at zero cost (currently about 120 million ETH).
Using on-chain mixing services to launder assets, with a 20% commission, potential earnings ≈ $4.8 billion.
6. Hardware Recycling Giants: The Harvesters of Computing Power Residual Value**
The global remaining value of ETH mining machines is approximately $7.5 billion (calculated based on the second-hand price of Bitmain S19 Pro).
Reselling to AI companies for training large models (NVIDIA H100 chip demand gap reaching 47%), profit margins could reach 300%.
Every $1 of mining machine remaining value acquired creates $3 of AI industry value, forming a new market worth $15 billion.
7. Stablecoin Issuers: The Fillers of Trust Vacuums
If ETH goes to zero, DeFi collateral will evaporate, and USDT, USDC will monopolize the $80 billion collateral market.
Referencing Tether's market share rising from 48% to 68% during the LUNA crash, this time it may exceed 90%.
For every $1 billion in new stablecoin issuance, annual profit ≈ $60 million (calculated at 6% treasury yield).
8. Regulatory Agencies: The Final Beneficiaries of Systemic Risk**
The SEC holds $1.2 billion worth of crypto shorting tools (disclosed at the 2024 congressional hearing).
Through the (Infrastructure Act), tax collection will impose a 30% capital gains tax based on on-chain transaction records.
Potential tax revenue for global regulators ≈ historical ETH transaction volume × comprehensive tax rate (taking 15%) ≈ $720 billion.
9. Insurance Actuaries: The Price Setters of Tail Risks
Lloyd's of London has an insurance product for ETH going to zero with a premium rate of 1200%.
If holding $1 billion in put options, the payout could be ≈ 120 times (referring to the subprime crisis CDS case).
Institutions hedge risks through Delta, with net earnings ≈ premium income × 10.
10. Social Media Giants: The Stakeholders of Attention Economy
ETH's collapse will trigger an average of 5 billion social discussions daily (referencing LUNA event data).
Twitter/X's paid public opinion monitoring service has increased single user data pricing to $0.50 per item, with potential revenue ≈ $7.5 billion/month.
Targeted advertising for shorting tools will increase conversion rates to 8% (industry average is 2%), expanding marginal profits by 4 times.
This article is purely fictional; if it unfortunately comes true, it is advised to immediately destroy hardware wallets to avoid being silenced ❗❗