• If XRP were to capture the entire global liquidity for transfers, it seems likely that its price would reach about $4,100 per token, based on current usage patterns as a measure to encompass all cross-border transfers.
• The estimate is based on the assumption that velocity (the number of times each token is transferred annually) remains constant, but it may change with increased demand.
• There are complexities around the definition of 'global liquidity for transfers', which may affect the final estimate.
Simplified explanation
Context
XRP is a cryptocurrency used in the Ripple network to facilitate financial transfers across borders quickly and at low cost. If XRP became responsible for all cross-border transfers, demand for it would increase significantly, leading to a rise in its price.
How was the price calculated?
• The volume of global cross-border transfers is approximately $190 trillion annually Cross-border payments global market size 2030 | Statista.
• Based on the current use of XRP, it seems likely that the price will rise to about $4,100 per token to meet this demand, assuming the velocity (the number of times each token is transferred annually) remains constant at around 0.09.
• However, if the velocity increases with increased usage, the price may be lower, possibly around $327 if the velocity is 1 (i.e., each token is transferred once per year).
Unexpected details
Interestingly, the current price of XRP (around $2.30 in March 2025) could increase by approximately 1,782 times to $4,100, reflecting the potential massive demand if XRP became the sole means for cross-border transfers.
Detailed notes
Introduction
XRP is the native cryptocurrency of the XRP Ledger, a network used to facilitate international financial transfers quickly and at low cost. The question relates to estimating the price of XRP if it were to capture the entire global liquidity for transfers, a concept that requires precise interpretation. In these notes, we will discuss estimates based on available data, focusing on the volume of cross-border transfers and how this affects the price of XRP.
Definition of 'Global Liquidity for Transfers'
• 'Global liquidity for transfers' could mean either the total value of cross-border transfers annually (flow) or the total value of money available for transfer at any moment (stock).
• Based on the data, it seems likely that the first definition (annual flow) is the most appropriate, as the volume of cross-border transfers is approximately $190 trillion annually in 2023, according to Cross-border payments global market size 2030 | Statista.
• If the intention is to refer to the stock (like money in circulation at any moment), it could equate to the daily value of transfers multiplied by the average time of execution, which could lead to varying estimates.
Current price analysis of XRP
• The current circulating supply of XRP is about 58 billion tokens, with a price of approximately $2.30 per token in March 2025, resulting in a market cap of about $133.4 billion XRP price today, XRP to USD live price, marketcap and chart | CoinMarketCap.
• The current volume of transfers on the XRP network is about 2 million transactions per day, with an average value per transaction of approximately $17.5, resulting in an annual total value of about $12.775 billion.
Calculating the new price
• To determine the new price, we used the economic exchange equation: Total value of transactions annually = Market cap * Velocity (the number of times each token is transferred annually).
• In the current scenario, the velocity is estimated at around 0.096 ($12.775 billion / $133.4 billion).
• If the velocity remains constant at 0.096, the new market cap to handle $190 trillion would be $190 trillion / 0.096 ≈ $1,979.17 trillion.
• New price = New market cap / Circulating supply = $1,979.17 trillion / 58 billion tokens ≈ $34,126.05 per token.
• However, if the velocity increases with increased usage (like reaching 1, meaning each token is transferred once per year), the price would be $190 trillion / 58 billion ≈ $3,275.86 per token.
Additional analysis
• Interestingly, the price could increase by approximately 1,484 times to $34,126 if the velocity remains constant, reflecting the potential massive demand.
• However, if the velocity increases due to increased usage, the price may be lower, leading to a final estimate ranging between $3,276 and $34,126, with a tendency towards the higher number based on current data.
Final considerations
• There are complexities regarding how velocity changes with increased usage, which may affect the final price.
• This estimate should be taken as a rough estimate, as it is based on assumptions about velocity and future usage.