This month, many investors feel confused and perplexed, which is not surprising: as the U.S. government approaches another shutdown, President Donald Trump intensifies the trade war, and the economic uncertainty index has soared, far exceeding the levels seen during the 2020 pandemic and the 2008 global financial crisis.

But this uncertainty may worsen further. Because amid the layers of tariff impacts, there is still an unresolved question: Will Trump's attacks on free trade affect the free flow of capital? Do commodity tariffs herald the arrival of currency tariffs?

Last month, the conservative think tank American Compass (closely related to Vice President JD Vance) claimed that taxing capital inflows could raise $2 trillion over the next decade. Subsequently, the White House issued the "America First Investment Policy" executive order, committing to "review whether to suspend or terminate" a treaty signed in 1984, considering the restoration of a 30% tax on capital inflows.

This move failed to make headlines, as issues like Trump’s tariffs continue to dominate investors' attention. However, this policy direction has alarmed Asian observers and may prompt some investors to withdraw their investments early, potentially leading to a decline in the U.S. stock market.

In fact, this shift in tax policy may not occur. Trump is known for his unpredictability, making it extremely difficult to forecast future policies, especially since his team has at least split into three major factions: nationalist populists (like Trump’s former senior advisor Stephen), tech libertarians (like Musk), and congressional Republicans supporting Trump. The latter two factions may oppose capital restriction measures due to concerns about destabilizing the bond market.

But Trump is also eager to use all available tools to enhance his leverage on the international stage.