Good evening, everyone. This week's market performance continues to be disappointing as always. Although the CPI data on Wednesday and the PPI data from yesterday are both favorable, and there is currently no risk of inflation rising further, the performance of the US stock market has not been optimistic, showing a downward trend since the market opened, which has dragged down the crypto market as well. This abnormal decline may indicate that the US stock market has begun to enter a technical bear market, and Bitcoin has not yet hit its bottom.

However, one positive point is that the US stock market has recently set two new lows, while Bitcoin has not followed suit and has been consolidating above 80,000 USD since its last drop to 76,600 USD. This indicates that Bitcoin's performance is relatively strong compared to the US stock market. Therefore, if the US stock market rebounds, Bitcoin has the opportunity to fill the CME gap above 86,000 USD.

But the recent market has made one doubt whether the bull market will come again.

It's important to understand that in a mature financial market, bull and bear cycles are normal. The cryptocurrency market is now very mature, having survived regulatory crackdowns and even bans from multiple countries, and still survives strongly. This indicates that in the coming years, even decades, the cryptocurrency market will continue to grow. Just as cacti can thrive in harsh desert environments, Bitcoin and other mainstream cryptocurrencies have shown strong vitality in adversity. Therefore, the future market will certainly welcome a bull market again, but before the bull market arrives, the market may shatter the fantasies of most people, which is a consistent rule of financial markets.

Moreover, it's important to know that the crypto market is not short of money; the market capitalization of stablecoins has reached 230 billion USD, surpassing ETH. Funds just need to receive clear signals, such as: the macro economy will not decline; the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates; new ecological narratives will emerge in the crypto market.

The market currently needs a fervent belief to drive prices up, rather than a short-sighted mentality of 'I'll run as soon as it rises this time.' But we must believe that new narratives will always emerge in the market; the key is to wait for the right opportunity!

Can altcoins still be played at this stage? How should one play them?

Although altcoins have been performing poorly recently, with many at new low levels, those that have seen some gains are mostly related to US policies. However, this does not mean that all altcoins are unplayable now.

The altcoins in hand can be held, but one must change their mindset. The market is changing, and the methods of operation must follow the market. Sometimes holding onto coins can make us let our guard down, as we feel that as long as we can hold on, we won’t face liquidation. The overlooked point here is:

1. Either there was a significant drop that directly breached your defenses, and your mindset couldn't handle such a large retracement.

2. Either previously felt no pressure regarding funds and did not have a good plan or reserves, and when it comes time to spend money, they see their accounts have already retraced significantly and are forced to sell at a loss.

3. Believing that one's assets can withstand cycles and endure volatility, but then never recovering afterward.

So how should the thinking change?

1. A major trend in the market is about to end; it's time to reduce positions. The characteristics of major trends in the cryptocurrency market over the past two years have been quite obvious.

2. In the new normal of the cryptocurrency market, differentiation is becoming more severe. When the market is strong, the performance of the general market is weak, leading to chaos. If you see signs of trouble in small coins, retreat at any time.

3. Position allocation and management are key. I've seen many people who, due to FOMO, have all their positions in small coins, thinking they are at new highs, only to find they are all at new lows instead. In a mid-term trend, 70% of positions are fully invested; in a late trend, 50% of positions are fully invested; when the trend is over, a third of the position is fully invested. Always keep some cash on hand to cope with market uncertainties.

4. Identify core assets, give up fantasies about new highs for most altcoins, as these may only be temporary new highs. In uncertain situations, even if you want to buy, you can only buy core assets at lower prices, which have the greatest consensus and strongest growth potential. When the situation becomes clearer and more certain, you can appropriately increase your risk appetite.

Lastly, let's talk about the news: At 11 PM tonight, current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will have a closed-door meeting with former Chairman Bernanke regarding monetary policy.

Powell has a huge impact on the crypto circle. Every time he indicates tightening monetary policy, Bitcoin's average decline over the next 30 days reaches 18.6%. Last December, he stated, 'The government will not hoard Bitcoin,' and the price evaporated 8 billion USD in a single day. But in March this year, he hinted at 'possibly slowing down rate hikes,' and Bitcoin surged 47% in two weeks. His statements are like a 'life-or-death talisman' for Bitcoin.

What kind of monetary policy signals will this meeting release? Will Bitcoin plummet or soar? The entire cryptocurrency circle is waiting for tonight's answer.