Multiple Wall Street economists have stated that due to the complex nature of inflation data calculations, along with unclear trends in some key areas involved, policymakers may not easily feel overly optimistic about these figures. Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau mentioned in a report: 'In short, the inflation process for 2025 is off to a rocky start. Our forecasts for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation further substantiate our view—it's unlikely that inflation will drop to the levels required for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year, especially in the context of policy changes pushing inflation higher. Unless economic activity data shows a significant weakening, we believe that policy rates may remain unchanged before the end of the year.'

Although the Federal Reserve will also pay attention to the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index), it believes that the final authority on inflation still rests with the PCE price index. Therefore, most economists expect that the latest PCE data, to be released later this month, may show that the year-on-year inflation rate could remain around 2.6% or even rise slightly. This means that the inflation rate is still far above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, which makes the market more cautious about the Federal Reserve's future policy direction. #CPI数据来袭 #PCE通胀