Trump is determined to twist Powell's arm 🤟

"I think if we all are becoming a little more nationalistic—and I’m not saying that’s a bad thing, you know, it does resonate with me—that it’s going to have elevated inflation," BlackRock’s Larry Fink told CeraWeek conference attendees, it was reported by Reuters.03/13 update: U.S. inflation has slowed to 2.8% in February from a year earlier, boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates but failing to offset fears that U.S. president Donald Trump’s global tariff trade war will push up prices through 2025.
The latest consumer price index (CPI) reading came in below January’s 3% and the 2.9% expected by economists, according to a Reuters poll.
“Today’s lower-than-expected CPI should be bullish, signaling faster rate cuts, but crypto hasn’t reacted strongly," Youwei Yang, chief economist at BIT Mining, said in emailed comments."Weeks of market fear require more than a single good print to regain confidence. The real issue is Trump’s aggressive tariffs, which risk making inflation stickier while also crashing markets and triggering layoffs, particularly by the Doge department of government efficiency. This puts the Fed in a bind: High inflation from tariffs makes rate cuts harder. Market crashes and job losses pressure the Fed to cut rates sooner. Cutting too early could reignite inflation, making future policy tougher. Stocks are bouncing back, but crypto remains sluggish. Investors want stronger support from the White House or Fed, especially after last week’s crypto summit failed to reassure markets. Until clearer signals emerge, fear and uncertainty will weigh on crypto market sentiment."Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs economists have upped their odds of a recession over the next 12 months from 15% to 20%, pointing to Trump’s economic policies as the “key risk." Yardeni Research economists have also raised their recession odds, increasing them from 20% to 35% due to "Trump 2.0’s head-spinning barrage of executives orders, firings, and tariffs."Last week, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is in no rush to cut rates, with the labor market still strong and inflation on a bumpy path toward its 2% goal.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows the market is heavily betting the Fed leaves rates on hold at its March meeting next week but is split over whether rates will be cut in May.