A short and concise analysis and my opinion on the Bitcoin Market.

Positive Points:

Technical Levels: The critical zones (US$ 80.000–US$ 84.000, support at US$ 78.000–US$ 72.000, resistance at US$ 86.000–US$ 100.000), aligned with the historical volatility of Bitcoin.

Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index at 20 indicates extreme fear, suggesting a possible reversal (oversold), balancing optimism and caution.

Liquidity: Liquidations of US$ 527 million (buy) vs. US$ 93 million (sell) show pressure, but may clear the market for a recovery.

Fundamentals: Events such as the Bitcoin reserve in the US and the crypto summit are mentioned, but the lack of immediate impact and low funding rates indicate caution.

Indicators: The CVDD suggests potential upside if Bitcoin surpasses resistances.

Points of Concern:

Macroeconomic Context: Lack of analysis of global factors (interest rates, inflation, geopolitics) that affect cryptocurrencies, especially in 2025.

Political Catalysts: Dependence on Trump (Bitcoin reserve) is uncertain and may be overestimated.

Volatility: Risks of decline (e.g., US$ 72.000, -10%) and psychological impact are underestimated.

Focus on Bitcoin: Little attention to altcoins (Ethereum, Solana) that may influence dominance.

Overview:

Bitcoin is at a critical point, with a chance of rising above US$ 84.000–US$ 86.000, supported by technical indicators and sentiment. However, there is a lack of a strong catalyst, and consolidation may be slow. Drops to US$ 78.000 or US$ 72.000 are real risks, amplified by macroeconomic events.

Observation Point:

Long Term: Buying on dips (US$ 78.000–US$ 72.000) with risk management.

Short Term: Caution, monitor supports/resistances (US$ 80.000, US$ 84.000, US$ 86.000) and use stop-loss.

Attention: Watch Fed decisions and regulations in the US.

Conclusion: The analysis is solid, but it does not include the macro context and short-term risks. The path to an increase will be challenging.