Bitcoin recorded a daily and weekly close at $80,688 on March 9, the lowest close since November 11, 2024.
Bitcoin has also fallen below its 200-day exponential moving average (200-D EMA) for the second time in two weeks, indicating additional weakness on the chart in longer time frames (HTF).
While the Crypto Fear and Greed Index continues to show 'extreme fear' on March 10, a BTC market simulation still highlights optimistic projections for the second half of 2025.
The Monte Carlo model signals an 800% increase in BTC price.
Mark Quant, a crypto researcher, conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to analyze Bitcoin's price, providing a six-month forecast for the digital asset.
The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that uses random sampling to simulate price projections and assess risks. It can generate multiple possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends.
Based on the initial price of $82,655, the study estimated an average final price of $258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, on a broader spectrum, the price could range between $51,430 (5th percentile) and $713,000 (95th percentile).
However, it's important to note that a Monte Carlo model heavily relies on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that the asset's value follows a random path with a constant parameter deviation.
In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, the Monte Carlo analysis remains as accurate as 'rolling the dice.'
Last week, Quant also highlighted a correlation between the total market value of crypto and the global liquidity index, indicating that the total market value could reach new highs above $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.
Bitcoin targets new CME gap after retesting $80K
The price of Bitcoin fell 6.38% over the weekend, creating a new gap in the CME futures charts. The CME Bitcoin futures gap describes the price difference between the closing of Bitcoin futures trading on CME on Friday and its reopening on Sunday night.
As illustrated in the chart, the CME gap currently lies between $83,000 and $86,000, a considerable range of $3,000. Based on past behavior, Bitcoin tends to 'fill' or return to these gaps on longer time frame charts, with the seven previous gaps being filled over the last four months.
Mark Cullen, a technical analyst, also highlighted the CME gap that formed over the weekend and speculated about the possibility of a short squeeze before the US markets open on March 10. However, the trader added:
"If we lose the weekly open around ~80K, there's a gap down to the low 70K range."