ETH's Next Trend! $ETH

1. Short-term Technical Analysis: Downward Risk Still Exists

ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Continues to Weaken

As of March 13, 2025, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped to 0.0224, reaching a new low since May 2020. Analysts point out that although the current RSI (Relative Strength Index) has entered the oversold area (23.32), the continuous decline suggests that the downward trend may not have stabilized and could even accelerate. If it fails to break through the key resistance level of 0.022 BTC (which triggered a 300% rebound in December 2020), ETH/BTC may further drop to the range of 0.020-0.016 BTC, representing a potential decline of about 30% from the current level.

Bearish Dominance in Market Sentiment

According to the 4-hour candlestick analysis on March 4, ETH prices have been declining continuously, and the MACD histogram indicates an increase in bearish strength, while shrinking trading volume suggests a quiet market. Although the MA10 short-term moving average was above the MA30, there are currently no clear reversal signals in the technical analysis, and caution is needed for further downside risks in the short term.

2. Fundamentals and Market Environment: Competition and Fund Diversion

Intensifying Competition Among Layer 1 Public Chains

Ethereum is facing challenges from Layer 1 projects like Solana and Sui, leading to a diversion of market attention. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's status as “digital gold” is favored in times of macro uncertainty, resulting in a fund rotation effect that puts pressure on ETH.

Unfulfilled Ecological Expectations

Despite Ethereum's transition to PoS, explosive growth in its ecosystem has yet to be realized, and investor enthusiasm for DeFi and NFTs has cooled, further weakening ETH's short-term appeal.

3. Potential Reversal Signals and Long-term Outlook

Possibility of Breaking Key Resistance Levels

If the ETH/BTC exchange rate can recover to 0.022 BTC and break through 0.038 BTC (which coincides with Fibonacci retracement levels and the 50-week EMA), it could signal a trend reversal. However, the current technical indicators are more inclined to continue the “downward knife” pattern, and caution is warranted for bottom fishing.

Long-term Correction Risks and Historical Patterns

Some analysts predict that ETH prices could correct by 50% from current levels based on logarithmic regression models, similar to historical trends in 2016 and 2019. However, this viewpoint is controversial, especially considering the impact of Bitcoin's halving cycle.

Conclusion

In the short term, ETH faces dual challenges of technical selling pressure and fund diversion, and the downward risk has not been alleviated, but the oversold condition may present opportunities for a short-term rebound. The mid to long-term trend will depend on ecological breakthroughs or improvements in the macroeconomic environment. Investors should remain cautious.