The Proposal: 30 Days of Ceasefire
After seven hours of negotiations, the Ukrainian and American delegations agreed on a plan that calls for an immediate 30-day ceasefire. This is to apply along the current front lines and could, according to the joint statement from both countries, pave the way for a 'lasting peace'. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the initiative as 'positive' and emphasized that it offers a chance to work on a more comprehensive peace agreement. As part of the deal, the US agreed to immediately resume previously halted military support and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
The negotiations in Saudi Arabia mark a turning point in relations between Washington and Kiev, which had been strained after a dispute in the Oval Office between US President Donald Trump and Zelensky in February 2025. The ball is now in Russia's court, but Moscow has so far been reserved.
Russia's Reaction: Caution and Demands
The Kremlin responded cautiously to the proposal on March 12, 2025. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia is waiting for further details from Washington before taking an official position. At the same time, President Vladimir Putin visited the contested region of Kursk, his first visit there since the Ukrainian offensive in August 2024, signaling determination. He spoke of liberating the area 'in the near future' from hostile forces, indicating a continuation of military operations.
Russian analysts and politicians expressed skepticism about the ceasefire. They fear that Ukraine could use the pause to rearm and point to Russia's current military superiority at the front. Experts speculate that Putin could set his own conditions, such as an end to Western arms deliveries to Kiev or the recognition of the occupied territories as Russian territory. Demands that would be unacceptable for Ukraine.
Leverage from Washington
US President Donald Trump increased pressure on Russia by threatening economic consequences. 'We can do things that would be very financially uncomfortable,' he said on March 12 at the White House, leaving open whether this meant new sanctions or other measures. At the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that the US would contact Moscow the same day to clarify Russian intentions. American envoys are expected to travel to Russia soon to advance the talks.
Europe also signaled its willingness to participate in enforcing a ceasefire. On March 12, defense ministers from the five leading European military powers – the UK, Germany, Italy, Poland, and France – met in Paris to discuss a possible 'security architecture' for Ukraine. France's Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu hinted that an announcement could be made as early as Thursday.
Challenges and Open Questions
Despite the positive signals, the chances for a ceasefire are on shaky ground. The positions of Kiev and Moscow remain far apart. Ukraine demands security guarantees to protect it from future Russian attacks and rejects territorial concessions. Russia, on the other hand, sees itself in a strong position and could interpret a ceasefire as a sign of weakness as long as its troops make progress.
Moreover, experts warn of Putin's unreliable negotiation history. Previous agreements, such as the Minsk treaties after 2014, have been repeatedly violated, undermining trust in Russian promises. Zelensky emphasized that the international community must ensure that Russia does not 'deceive' during the negotiations.
Outlook: Peace or Stalemate?
The coming days will be crucial. If Russia accepts the proposal, the ceasefire could offer a rare breather in the war and open the door for further negotiations. However, even then, significant questions remain: What could a lasting peace look like? What role do territorial disputes, such as the areas occupied by Russia or the Ukrainian presence in Kursk, play? And how can an agreement be enforced that both sides accept?
The ceasefire proposal from March 2025 is a glimmer of hope, yet the path to peace is rocky. While Ukraine and the West are applying pressure, the decision ultimately lies with Moscow – and Putin seems little inclined to risk his military successes. The world holds its breath.
