**Short-term Volatility in Market Risk Appetite**
- After the CPI data release, the market often experiences short-term sentiment-driven volatility. For example, after the March 2025 CPI release, U.S. stock futures and Bitcoin rose in tandem, indicating a recovery in risk appetite.
- However, it should be noted that some analysts believe the direct impact of CPI on Bitcoin is limited, and its price is more influenced by long-term liquidity, institutional capital inflows, and overall market sentiment.$BTC #MGX投资币安 
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### Historical Cases and Price Range Predictions
1. **Historical Response Differences**
- Data from 2022 shows that the CPI data and Bitcoin price are not strictly positively correlated; for instance, Bitcoin may exhibit reverse volatility when CPI declines, indicating market divergence in data interpretation.
- Following the January 2025 CPI data, Bitcoin briefly touched $100,000 but then retreated, showing that short-term positives may be offset by technical resistance or profit-taking.
2. **Future Price Range and Key Resistance Levels**
- If CPI data meets or falls below expectations, Bitcoin may oscillate in the $90,000 to $110,000 range and attempt to break through highs (such as $105,491).
- If the data exceeds expectations, it may first pull back to the $92,000 to $94,000 range to absorb liquidity before rebounding.
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### Long-term Influencing Factors and Strategy Recommendations
1. **Macroeconomic and Policy Linkage**
- The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index is at a high level (reaching a two-year peak in 2025), indicating that it is increasingly influenced by tech stocks and other risk assets.
- The long-term interest rate path of the Federal Reserve (such as the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2025) remains a key variable, requiring a comprehensive assessment in conjunction with employment, GDP, and other data.
2. **The Dual Attributes of Bitcoin as 'Safe Haven' and 'Risk'**
- During periods of high inflation or economic uncertainty, Bitcoin may be viewed as 'digital gold' by some investors, but its volatility remains higher than that of traditional safe-haven assets.
- Regulatory policies (such as ETF approvals, exchange compliance) and on-chain data (such as changes in whale holdings) should also be included in the analytical framework.
3. **Investor Strategy Recommendations**
- **Short-term**: Pay attention to market reactions within 2-4 hours after the CPI release, especially changes in futures open interest and funding rates, and be wary of high volatility risks.
- **Medium to Long-term**: Layout strategies in conjunction with the Federal Reserve's policy path, the dollar cycle, and the cryptocurrency market ecosystem (such as Layer 2 technology developments and institutional holdings).
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### Summary
CPI data could cause significant short-term volatility in Bitcoin by influencing monetary policy expectations and the dollar's trajectory, but long-term trends still need to be assessed in conjunction with macroeconomic fundamentals, market liquidity, and technical factors. Investors should be vigilant about short-term sentiment disturbances, focusing on signals of a shift in Federal Reserve policy and the evolution of Bitcoin as a 'risk asset + inflation hedge' dual attribute.
