Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the CPI inflation data for February! The market predicts that overall inflation may drop to 2.9% year-on-year, and core inflation to 3.2%. However, if the data comes out cold, U.S. stocks are likely to experience a roller coaster ride—high inflation raises fears of 'stagflation', while low inflation raises concerns about recession. Currently, the options volatility for the S&P 500 has risen to 1.7%, causing panic in the market.
Bitcoin has surged back to $80,000. Although some are worried that bad data will lead to a sell-off, I bet that even if there are price spikes, it won’t really drop below $80,000. I’m still fully invested in the spot market, and if there’s a paper loss of 3-5%, I’ll just consider it a minor setback; it’s not a big deal. Moreover, the mining machines are already at shutdown price, and they can’t drop much further—this past couple of days has shown a clear rebound with increased volume, indicating that there is capital stepping in.
Trump’s tariff increase is really playing with the mentality; corporate costs have been pushed up, and U.S. banks say that the February data may already reflect the initial impact. The market has been tossed around, with prices dropping to a low of 76,500, but if you look closely, you’ll find that the institutional cost line is nearby. After a volume-less drop, the rebound with volume clearly shows that there are major players bottom fishing.
Currently, the market is filled with “the wolf is coming” news; institutions are washing out positions while accumulating shares, and the bulls are being nearly washed out. Just look at how panicked the market sentiment is? The short positions are piling up like a mountain, while there are hardly any bottom-fishers—such times often signal the prelude to a reversal. After the data is released tonight, I see a high probability of a rebound; the range of 85,500-86,500 should at least be touched. What positions are you holding, brothers? Short positions, fasten your seatbelts; long positions, get ready to count your money!
Only with strength will one be trusted, and only with sincerity will one be relied upon.
I am responsible for being honest with you, and you are responsible for waiting with anticipation.
Stay tuned: bel tst bnx car ltc
