Recently, the global market's focus is no longer solely on inflation, but on the impact of Trump's 'extreme policy combo' on the economic outlook. JPMorgan has raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 from 30% to 40%, and Goldman Sachs has similarly increased it to 20%. The main reason is Trump's tough policies in trade that have undermined corporate confidence. Morgan Stanley predicts that U.S. GDP growth may drop to 1.5% in 2025 and further to 1.2% in 2026, leading to an increasingly pessimistic market outlook for U.S. economic growth.
Despite weakening economic data, Trump remains steadfast in implementing tariff policies, with the core logic being to exchange interest rate cuts for growth. He hopes to artificially create expectations of an economic slowdown through a trade war, forcing the Federal Reserve to reopen interest rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE). Once the Federal Reserve concedes, market liquidity will rebound significantly, and in the short term, U.S. stocks and risk assets may gain support, thereby promoting Trump's 'Make America Great Again' plan.
However, this strategy also carries significant uncertainty. If interest rate cuts are insufficient to save the economy, the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market may face more severe adjustments. The actions of the Federal Reserve have become key variables in market trends, especially in the high-risk asset space like Bitcoin, where fluctuations in funding sentiment are more sensitive.
📈 Technical Analysis
The Bitcoin market is currently under pressure, with prices briefly dropping below $76,600, but there are signs of stabilization near key support levels. Technically, the 4-hour RSI has formed a bottom divergence, a pattern that successfully indicated trend reversals in January 2023 (bottom at $16,800) and June 2024 (bottom at $56,500). If Bitcoin can hold above $81,500 this week, the mid-term target will point to the $88,000-$92,000 range.
From the perspective of capital flow, the market is gradually digesting macro risk factors, and short-term policy fluctuations have not changed the long-term logic of the cryptocurrency market. The current adjustment is more like a shakeout during a bull market rather than a trend reversal.
🔍 Although short-term market sentiment is affected by policy uncertainties, the long-term logic of Bitcoin remains solid:
1. Global central bank easing expectations have strengthened: If future signals of economic recession become clearer, the Federal Reserve and other central banks may be forced to cut interest rates, which would benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin.
2. The Bitcoin halving effect continues to ferment: As supply decreases, market recognition of BTC's long-term inflation-hedging properties is still increasing.
3. Institutional funds continue to flow in: Despite short-term fluctuations, Wall Street institutions are still increasing their allocations to BTC, with Grayscale, BlackRock, and others continuing to increase their holdings.
📍 Summary
The current market is facing multiple impacts from Trump's trade policies, recession expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to increased short-term market volatility. However, historical experience shows that such macro uncertainties often provide quality layout opportunities for long-term investors.