Btc

Reserve policy falls short of expectations, macro uncertainty rises

The highly anticipated Bitcoin reserve plan has recently shown no positive news. The Bitcoin Reserve Act signed by Trump stipulates that reserves mainly come from approximately 200,000 Bitcoins held by U.S. policies, and additional purchases must be "budget-neutral," making extra purchases extremely difficult, and public acceptance of buying Bitcoin is also low. Meanwhile, several states have vetoed the Bitcoin Reserve Act; although Utah passed related legislation, it removed the clause for investing in Bitcoin. Clearly, the expected "national buying of Bitcoin" is difficult to achieve.

On the macro level, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have lowered their GDP growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025, increasing the probability of economic recession. Trump's policies have led to rising inflation and unemployment rates in the short term, weakening the dollar's hegemony, and the contradiction between inflation caused by tariffs and economic resilience may form a vicious cycle. The differences in policy perception between the wealthy and the lower classes further exacerbate uncertainty.

For the financial market, funds previously flowed into gold, U.S. stocks, and the dollar in search of certainty; now, U.S. stocks and the dollar have fallen, losing that certainty. Hong Kong stocks and A-shares have risen, also influenced by this. The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks has strengthened, and investors need to be cautious of market volatility in the first half of this year.

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