Hello everyone, I am Er Shi Si, 24Hours, and I wish you all good health and all the best in advance.

What is trading? It's simple: when a buy and sell order match, that is trading.

Okay, can we start making money now?
Actually, not yet. Before trading starts, there is a very important estimation process called risk-reward ratio, which is also known as the Sharpe ratio; you can also call it the Sharpe value. (To give a simple example, the 'dog' is 0 to relatively positive infinity, zero and relatively infinite.)

Among different Sharpe values, there will be many trading methods, which are also various strategies, such as: spot trading, leverage, contracts, futures, options, betting on price changes, 'dogs', OTC, Budget, and various other strategies.

So I cannot tell you which has the highest return rate or the highest win rate. Therefore, I will share a super interesting logic here, which is the three-door theory, also known as the Monty Hall problem's underlying logic.

Simply put:
You are a contestant, and in front of you are three doors. Behind one of the doors is a hundred Bitcoins. If you choose the door with Bitcoin, you can take away the cold wallet containing the Bitcoins. The other two doors contain PI coins.
Once the contestant selects a door, the host will open another door that contains PI coins and ask you, 'Would you like to switch doors?'

(From a belief perspective, it depends on whether you are a believer in PI coins or BTC.)

Of course, if you choose to switch doors, the probability of winning Bitcoin is 2/3.
If you do not switch, it remains one-third as initially, but by choosing to switch, you are given the additional one-third probability by the host.

OK, this is the simple three-door logic.

So why are there three doors in trading? Besides rising and falling? Are there other possibilities?

Yes, you can choose to be in a flat position.

Trading is a very simple thing; it can be done without fingers. However, only four types of people can make money: insiders, those who follow blindly, those who have absolute technical, fundamental, and networking skills, and inhumane geniuses. (The Sharpe ratios among these four types of people also vary.)

Buying and selling is a super simple thing; one click is to open a position. What about clicking again? Is it to add to the position? To average down? To reduce the position? To close the position? Don't you suddenly find that there are many choices, and uncertainty is rising exponentially?

The essence of trading is buying and selling, while making money is about avoiding the uncertainties of buying and selling. In volatile markets, there are opportunities for getting rich, and this is absolutely true, but the Sharpe index can also be extremely volatile. Your risk-reward ratio can sometimes go to zero or have limited multiples, because the market will not disappear, but your position can evaporate.

A friend came to ask me, '24, what should I do?' My reply was, 'Among making money, losing money, and being flat, being flat has a 66.7% win rate. You asked me if you should open a contract? When to open? When to run? I would tell you, once you set any choice, don't forget there is still the option to be flat.'

I haven't gotten rich because quantitative strategies need to outperform transaction fees, because wealth accumulation must be built on a solid foundation, and because capital safety always comes before returns. If you haven't gotten rich, you are not useless; if you haven't lost money, you are doing great. I sincerely hope that everyone can make a lot of money in 2025, and I sincerely hope that everyone's capital will be safely stored in 2025.
Thank you all, and I wish you all to make money while time flies and flowers bloom.

Above all, I wish you good health and happiness.