$BTC

#$BTC

‘Monte Carlo’ model of Bitcoin predicts peak of $713,000 in 6 months

The statistical tool highlighted a broad price target for Bitcoin, ranging from $51,430 to $713,000, with an average of $258,445 in September 2025.



Market analysis

The #TheBitcoinAct BTC

R$ 481,905

 recorded a daily and weekly closing at $80,688 on March 9, the lowest close since November 11, 2024.

Bitcoin also fell below its 200-day exponential moving average (200-D EMA) for the second time in two weeks, indicating additional weakness on the longer-term chart (HTF).



1-day Bitcoin chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

While the Crypto Fear and Greed Index continues to show "extreme fear" on March 10, a simulation of the BTC market still highlights optimistic projections for the second half of 2025.

The Monte Carlo model signals an 800% increase in BTC price

Mark Quant, a crypto researcher, conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to analyze Bitcoin's price, providing a six-month forecast for the digital asset.

The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that uses random sampling to simulate price projections and assess risks. It can generate multiple possible scenarios based on varying factors such as volatility and market trends.



Monte Carlo projections for Bitcoin by Mark Quant. Source: X.com

Based on the initial price of $82,655, the study estimated an average final price of $258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, on a broader spectrum, the price could range from $51,430 (5th percentile) to $713,000 (95th percentile).