$BTC As the market's bets on additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan heat up, the Japanese 10-year government bond yield hits a new high since 2008, the yen rises, and market risk aversion sentiment surges again, Bitcoin may face heavy selling pressure, with traders collectively lowering their short-term target price to the $70,000 level.
Japanese government bond yields soar to a 17-year high, risk assets may face impact
Due to market expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to cope with inflationary pressures, Japanese government bond yields have been climbing steadily, with the 10-year government bond yield, a long-term interest rate indicator, soaring to 1.565%, hitting a new high since October 2008, and the yen is also rising concurrently. In the past, many investors would 'borrow low-yielding yen' to invest in high-risk assets like Bitcoin, but if the yen strengthens, investors may be forced to sell the assets they initially invested in with borrowed yen.
Looking back at the 'yen carry trade' unwinding wave in August 2024, when the yen strengthened, global market funds fled, and stock markets and Bitcoin fell sharply in sync. Now, with yields soaring again, coupled with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, market anxiety is spreading, raising concerns among traders about a significant pullback in Bitcoin.
Traders have lowered their short-term target price for Bitcoin, with $70,000 becoming a key support.
Amid increasing global economic uncertainty, escalating US-China tariff wars, and a lack of bullish catalysts in the market, many traders have lowered their target price for Bitcoin in the coming weeks to the $70,000 level.
BTSE COO Je indicated that the technical outlook has shifted to 'clearly bearish', and recent extreme volatility has further reduced Bitcoin's risk-return ratio, with a lack of bullish support in the short term. He stated: 'We believe that the geopolitical and economic uncertainties in the market have led institutional investors to start reducing their cryptocurrency holdings, and Bitcoin may fall within the range of $70,000 to $80,000 in the short term.'
Jeff Mei further pointed out that only when the US-China tariff war comes to a pause and the US Federal Reserve restarts the rate cut cycle, market confidence is likely to rebound, and Bitcoin may also regain upward momentum, challenging historical highs.
On the other hand, SignalPlus market insight director Augustine Fan also issued a warning regarding Bitcoin's trend: the technical outlook has shifted to 'clearly bearish', and recent extreme volatility has further reduced Bitcoin's risk-return ratio, with a lack of bullish support in the short term.