$BTC ### **BTC/USDT Perpetual Contract Trend Prediction**

#### **Short-term Bearish Factors**

1. **Moving Average Resistance**: The current price (82,796.12) is below the short-term moving averages (MA7: 83,022.56, MA99: 83,186.04), with clear technical resistance above.

2. **Volume Shrinkage**: The current trading volume (220.79K) is significantly lower than the 5-day/10-day average volume (596.75K/1,462.45K), indicating insufficient upward momentum.

3. **Policy Risk**: The implementation period of the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order may trigger market concerns about policy uncertainty, suppressing short-term buying.

#### **Potential Support Factors**

1. **Mid-term Moving Average Support**: The price is still above MA25 (81,173.07); if this position is maintained, it may alleviate downward pressure.

2. **Long-term Trend Intact**: MA99 (83,186.04) is close to the current price, and if broken, upward momentum may be regained.

#### **Key Levels**

- **Resistance Levels**: MA7 (83,022), MA99 (83,186), 24h high (83,617).

- **Support Levels**: MA25 (81,173), 24h low (76,606).

#### **Conclusion**

**Short-term (1-3 days) leans towards consolidation**, if the price cannot break through MA7 (83,022), it may test MA25 (81,173) or even the 24h low (76,606). If positive signals are released from the policy side or trading volume significantly rebounds (approaching 5-day average volume), it may attempt to challenge the 83,600 resistance level.

**Recommendation**: Pay attention to the strength of the MA25 support and policy dynamics; a drop below 81,173 requires vigilance for accelerated downward risk, and any rebound needs volume confirmation for validity.