As of March 11, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced significant intraday volatility, and here is a key market analysis based on multiple sources of information:
### **1. Price trends and volatility range**
- **Significant morning drop**: BTC briefly fell below $77,000 this morning, hitting a low of $76,996.10, with an intraday decline of 3.80%, extreme panic in market sentiment, reduced trading volume, and the William's indicator showing oversold conditions.
- **Intraday rebound and divergence**:
- **Midday rebound**: The evening price rebounded to $80,812.01 (narrowing the decline to -1.01%), then further rose to $80,838.21 (an increase of 1.06%), but trading volume continued to shrink, and the upward momentum weakened.
- **Key resistance and support**: The market generally focuses on $74,000 to $76,000 as a potential downward target, with $87,000 as a resistance level. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts BTC may bottom out around $70,000.
### **2. Market sentiment and fund flows**
- **Panic sentiment dominates**: The fear and greed index is at 24 (extreme fear), with a liquidation amount of $956 million in the last 24 hours, and long positions accounting for as much as 78%, reflecting heavy losses for leveraged traders.
- **ETF fund outflows**: Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $189 million in a single day, marking the fourth consecutive week of fund outflows, indicating a rising risk-averse sentiment among institutional investors.
### **3. Technical and fundamental driving factors**
- **Technical signals**:
- **Conflicting candlestick patterns**: The downtrend was evident in the morning, but the evening price rebound accompanied by a decrease in trading volume formed a 'volume-price divergence', with some analysts believing that the rise may be a temporary rebound.
- **William's indicator divergence**: After being oversold in the morning, the evening indicator shows a quiet market, with no obvious overbought or oversold signals.
- **Macroeconomic and policy impacts**:
- **U.S. stocks drag down**: The NASDAQ plummeted by 4%, with blockchain-related stocks (such as Coinbase, MicroStrategy) dropping over 15%, exacerbating selling pressure in the crypto market.
- **Federal Reserve policy expectations**: The market bets on consecutive interest rate cuts from June to October, but Powell's statements are cautious, and Goldman Sachs has lowered the U.S. economic growth forecast to 1.7%, with inflation uncertainty suppressing risk appetite.
### **4. Analyst views and operational suggestions**
- **Short-term strategy**: Most analysts suggest waiting and watching the effectiveness of the support level at $74,000 to $76,000; if broken, it may trigger further selling. A rebound above $80,000 needs to be verified with volume support.
- **Long-term perspective**: Delphi Digital researcher Minty reminds that the current pullback is a normal adjustment in a bull market, and investors should avoid measuring targets against historical highs and patiently wait for significant opportunities.
---
**Summary**: BTC today displayed a 'V-shaped' fluctuation, with market sentiment significantly affected by the sharp decline in U.S. stocks, policy uncertainty, and leveraged liquidation. In the short term, caution is needed regarding the fragility of technical rebounds, while in the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy shifts and macroeconomic data (such as CPI) guiding risk assets.
