The question of whether the cryptocurrency market has shifted from a bull market to a bear market depends on various factors, including market sentiment, macroeconomic environment, policy changes, etc. Currently, although there are some signs of market volatility and corrections, there is still no clear evidence that the bull market has ended. I personally believe it is still a correction phase within the bull market.
In 2024, Bitcoin consolidated for several months, nearly half a year, before welcoming several waves of significant increases. However, at that time, there were many favorable factors, such as Bitcoin halving and the supportive Trump coming to power. When these favorable conditions were realized, it seemed that there was no longer any motivation to support Bitcoin's continued rise, and the current market environment has become more complex.
As of today, March 11, 2025, Bitcoin has fallen to around 80,000, a decrease of 20% from 100,000. This round of the bull market should not be over yet; most people's expectations have not been met, and the bull market will not end easily. However, there are often correction periods during a bull market, which can be seen as a mid-term bear market. In my view, the current price is suitable for gradual accumulation, and the bottom of this bull market is estimated to be around 70,000, returning to 100,000 is only a matter of time.
Why has it been declining despite recent positive news?
I. U.S. Stock Market Decline
Currently, pessimistic sentiment prevails in the U.S. stock market, with concerns about a prolonged recession in the U.S. economy. Both tech stocks like Tesla and crypto stocks have fallen by over 10%. Bitcoin, as it stands, is not a safe haven amid the stock market decline; it resembles digital gold amidst the hellish currency inflation. Trump is still wielding the tariff stick to intimidate other countries, and the deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have led to worries among investors, prompting sell-offs. Perhaps Bitcoin will soon fall to just above 70,000. Of course, long-term investors need not worry; when the impact of tariffs ends and the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts, the market will recover.
II. The Halo Effect of Trump is Fading
Trump himself and his wife have harvested a large wave of retail investors, seemingly treating the crypto space as a personal ATM, which has raised doubts. Currently, the policy seems lukewarm. One thing should be clear: as the President of the United States, Trump's decisions are certainly aimed at serving the U.S. economy and fostering its development, so following the trend is not wrong. Trump's strategy may weaken the dollar and increase inflation, enhancing liquidity, which I believe will be a catalyst for a new round of the bull market.
In the crypto space, survival is key. Regardless of how the market changes, there are always ways to make money. Earning in crypto is not limited to trading coins; trading coins is just the most basic and surface-level approach. How to obtain sufficient cash flow to survive in this unpredictable space is what we should be more concerned about.
