The Trump administration's policies do indeed intend to indirectly force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by influencing the economic environment, but this process is not a direct "behind-the-scenes manipulation"; rather, it is about creating economic pressure through fiscal, trade, and other policy tools, thereby pushing the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy.

1. Policy tools and economic pressure

- Fiscal tightening and layoffs: The Trump administration has created pressure on economic growth in the short term by cutting federal spending (such as the DOGE program) and mass layoffs (about 100,000 federal employees). Analysts point out that this aggressive fiscal tightening could trigger a "mild recession," thereby creating conditions for interest rate cuts.

- Tariff policy: Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, exacerbating trade tensions, increasing import costs, and inflation expectations. Tariff policies may lead to a slowdown in corporate investment and a decline in consumer confidence, further pressuring the economy.

2. Public statements and pressure from public opinion

- Trump has repeatedly called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, even suggesting that falling oil prices should trigger such cuts. Although the Federal Reserve emphasizes its independence, political pressure could influence market expectations and indirectly constrain the Federal Reserve's policy space.

3. Cryptocurrencies and strategic reserves

- Trump signed an executive order to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, attempting to strengthen the dollar's position by promoting the development of cryptocurrencies. However, this move is more of a long-term strategic layout and is weakly related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the short term.

4. The independence of the Federal Reserve and response logic

- The Federal Reserve emphasizes that its decisions are based on economic data rather than political pressure, and whether or not to cut interest rates depends on core indicators such as inflation and employment. However, Trump's policies may indirectly affect the Federal Reserve through the following channels:

- Inflation pressure: Tariffs have raised import prices, and if inflation continues to exceed targets, the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates; however, if the risk of economic recession increases, the possibility of interest rate cuts may rise.

- Labor market: Mass layoffs may lead to an increase in unemployment rates, forcing the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy through interest rate cuts.

5. Market reactions and expectation games

- The volatility of risk assets like Bitcoin reflects the market's dual expectations regarding Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's direction. For example, hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve or policies that fall short of expectations (such as slow implementation of Bitcoin reserves) could trigger a sell-off.

Conclusion

The Trump administration attempted to create economic pressure to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates through fiscal tightening, tariff policies, and public statements, but its methods are more about policy guidance rather than direct intervention. The independence of the Federal Reserve still dominates, and its decisions ultimately depend on economic data and inflation trends. In the future, attention should be paid to the strength of fiscal policy implementation, the effectiveness of tariffs, and changes in the labor market, as these will directly affect the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts.#特朗普接受比特币和加密货币作为总统竞选捐赠渠道