#recession Investors flee risk assets: JPMorgan raised recession odds to 40%

Cryptocurrencies and tech stocks faced heavy selling on March 10, as fears of a recession in the U.S. grew despite the White House's efforts to calm concerns.

Economists at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan raised their recession risk for this year to 40%, up from 30% earlier in 2025. “We see a significant risk of the U.S. falling into recession this year due to extreme policies,” the analysts wrote, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile, analysts at Goldman Sachs also raised their 12-month recession probability to 20%, up from the previous 15%. They warned that the forecast could increase if the Trump administration “maintains its commitment to its policies even in the face of much worse economic data.”

In the meantime, economists at Morgan Stanley lowered their economic growth forecasts last week and raised their inflation expectations. The bank predicted GDP growth of only 1.5% in 2025, falling to 1.2% in 2026.

This comes despite a key economic advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump dismissing discussions of a recession. In an interview with CNBC on March 10, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, stated that there are many reasons to be optimistic about the U.S. economy.

“There are many reasons to be extremely optimistic about the economy in the future. But, undoubtedly, this quarter there are some irregularities in the data,” he said.