Is it a bull market or a bear market right now? Where is the bottom? When can one buy the dip? This is likely what everyone wants to know lately.

The weekend was originally quite calm, but since yesterday afternoon, Bitcoin prices have been falling, breaking below the 200-day moving average again, with a low point dropping to the whole number of 80,000.

When the Bitcoin price reaches the whole number of 80,000, it activates some buy orders for a slight rebound, temporarily stopping the decline for 1 hour and correcting the divergence from last night! On the 4-hour chart, the range trend remains in a downward state and has not effectively shown short-term stop-loss signals. Therefore, for the short term, we look for a rebound, with resistance at 83,000 on the 4-hour chart and a trend line resistance of 83,400 on the daily MA200.

The current market direction is also quite simple, trading themes are completely fluctuating with Trump’s policies. As long as the trade war intensifies, including Trump's unilateral tariff announcements and corresponding retaliatory tariffs, the crypto market will fall. Conversely, if it pauses, it will rebound. Since it follows Trump's personal will, prediction is difficult. It is still recommended that everyone reduce contract leverage as much as possible to avoid forced liquidation caused by excessive price fluctuations.

How do we view the subsequent market?

One of the core focus indicators for Bitcoin's current trend is its positioning as a risk asset within the dollar system. The effectiveness of this observation is due to the gradual switching of core assets in the dollar system, which is guaranteed by multiple factors such as macroeconomic conditions, regulation, and fundamentals. Specifically, the following trend indicators observed remain robust:

Bitcoin still has a significant advantage in the Sharpe ratio compared to the Nasdaq and other 'seven sisters' assets. Its resilience has been validated again in the face of tariffs and other series of challenges.

The loosening of on-chain chips is not serious, especially showing stronger support signals rather than collapse signals amid negative releases; supply has not been uncontrollably increased.

From a regulatory perspective, the recent series of regulatory actions seem to me to be significant long-term positive foundations. The market's lack of understanding of the U.S. political and economic system is the main source of irrational volatility, which will not change the long-term positive trend.

Combining the recent rhythm of the overall dollar risk release, the mid-term adjustment period presents an excellent opportunity for building positions.

The industry's clearing has entered a rapid phase. If the clearing period resonates quickly and strongly with emotions, it may catch up with the next macro liquidity bull market. However, the flow of funds in this bull market is likely to be completely different from 2021, so existing so-called crypto assets need to be treated with extra caution from a long-term holding perspective.

In addition, attention should also be paid to the U.S. CPI data for February to be released on March 12, hoping for a figure lower than expected to bring some positive news.

On March 19, Japan will have a monetary policy meeting. Risk aversion is quite serious, and daytime rebounds remain weak, continuing to probe lower. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by about 75 basis points this year, with cuts of 25 basis points in June, September, and December. Before the interest rate cut speculation, the bulls will be completely liquidated, and the overall market in the first half of the year is not too optimistic. The market can only be forced into intraday swing trading, with MEME occasionally providing some angle and narrative for fast trading.

At this time, impatience is strictly prohibited. This impatience comes from the fear of those eager to buy the dip and those who are trapped. Whether eager to buy the dip or to stop losses, thinking that once today passes, there will be no more opportunities is simply a reflection of shallow experience. At this time, one should calm down, carefully assess the subsequent development trends.

Short-term operational strategy suggestions:

Leverage players should urgently hedge: reduce positions to below 10%, set stop-loss lines (suggested at 5% below $80,000).

Regular investment enthusiasts should accumulate positions on dips: if it drops to the 75,000-78,000 range, they can gradually build positions, aiming for expectations of the halving cycle in the second half of the year.

Focus on compliance pathways: The Biden administration may accelerate cryptocurrency legislation, with a focus on RWA (such as Avalon Labs) and Bitcoin Layer2 (such as Merlin Chain).

Stay away from the chaos of meme coins: TRUMP, TRUMP, MELANIA and other political concept coins fluctuate violently and are prone to becoming cannon fodder.

Bitcoin is under short-term pressure from policies and macro factors, but remains a core asset for anti-inflation and financial innovation in the long run. History shows that significant drops are often followed by institutional entry (like MicroStrategy's buy-the-dip strategy).

Ordinary people should remember three principles: no leverage, no all-in, no following the crowd.