【This round of the cryptocurrency bull market may have ended】

Any bull market in capital markets requires continuous inflow of incremental funds to sustain it. However, the sources of incremental funds in the cryptocurrency sector have all dried up:

1. Altcoins have collapsed. This round of the cryptocurrency bull market did not generate new hot altcoin trends to successfully attract off-market incremental funds, and there hasn't even been a decent rotation of altcoins. The traditional source of incremental funds that attracted new money into the cryptocurrency market and eventually flowed into Bitcoin is gone.

2. The Bitcoin spot ETF in the U.S. stock market has shifted from net inflow to continuous net outflow. In the past month, at 10:30 PM Beijing time on each trading day, Bitcoin has almost promptly plunged, largely because as soon as the U.S. stock market opens, the Bitcoin spot ETF starts to unload, dragging down the entire cryptocurrency sector. After the U.S. stock market closes, it rebounds, but the next evening when the U.S. stock market opens, it starts unloading again, bringing down the market.

3. The stingy Trump is not willing to spend a dime. A significant factor in this round of the cryptocurrency bull market was Trump's claim during his campaign that he would include Bitcoin as part of the U.S. government's reserve assets. Market participants thought the U.S. government would spend money to buy Bitcoin for them to take over! But in reality, Trump just inflated the bubble; he only spoke sweetly and was not actually prepared to spend any extra money to buy Bitcoin to increase reserve quantities. So this last hope supporting the bull market has been shattered.

4. The U.S. increasing tariffs globally has lowered the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts. This round of the cryptocurrency bull market began in December 2022 when U.S. inflation peaked and started to decline, leading the market to predict that the Fed would begin to cut rates continuously, benefiting all capital markets and thus ending the previous year-long bear market in cryptocurrencies. However, with Trump's recent return to office and the imposition of tariffs globally, the market predicts this will lead to rising domestic prices and renewed inflation in the U.S., forcing the Fed to interrupt its rate-cutting pace, with even the possibility of rate hikes in extreme scenarios. This has had a huge impact on both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency sector, with the Nasdaq repeatedly breaking below the 120-day and 200-day moving averages, which has also led to a significant decline in the cryptocurrency sector.