Last week was another eventful week; Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserve market seems not to be accepted, and the failed launch has further led to liquidity liquidation. Bitcoin has returned to 80,000, starting a new round of competition.
This morning, Li Mu heard the most voices in the market suggesting to go all in or arrange spot trading at the 2000 position for Aunt. He reorganized the charts again, and this viewpoint seems to have some rationale.
The fading of narrative may reduce liquidity, but prices that remain stable after losing the narrative are more likely to be recognized by the market.
According to Li Mu, Trump's declaration seems like a pile of dog poop right now. Not to mention the lack of substantial measures, the failure to purchase cryptocurrency assets is enough to overturn the benefits brought by the event. Moreover, after experiencing the ups and downs, Bitcoin has already become desensitized. Its further appreciation does not require these useless gimmicks; only substantial actions matter.
Contract open interest has further declined, reaching its lowest level in nearly a year.
In past market trends, alongside the sharp decline, there were often long liquidations and new positions being built. However, it seems different this time; the market's risk aversion is rising, and investors are more conflicted about current prices. Thus, exchanges or institutions find it difficult to achieve liquidation of chips through breaking a certain support, leading to more agonizing price fluctuations. The market needs new blood, and so do the exchanges.
The market is approaching technical trend support; further breakdown may indicate the true arrival of a bear market.
Looking at the overall situation, the price of Ethereum is quite significant. Recently, friends who focus on both Bitcoin and Ethereum should feel that Ethereum's price has begun to strengthen. This is related to its nearby trend support, which cannot be ignored. Currently, the level has reached the extreme support of the monthly line. If it fails to hold above 2000 again this month, then there will be no support below. Meanwhile, the TD13 on the weekly K seems to predict that this position is not simple.
In summary, if the narrative has been completely digested, the market may enter a longer period of fluctuation. However, as long as support can be held, its price will regain market recognition. Exchanges will also reopen the outlet of the 'leverage reservoir' for new reserves. Perhaps this week you will see Bitcoin at 80,000 and Ethereum at 2,000, and next month it will be Bitcoin at 95,000 and Ethereum at 2,500.
