What is happening currently?

  • Price plummeted sharply: Bitcoin fell over 7% in one day, dropping from $82,000 (about 590,000 RMB) to around $80,000, with trading volume also shrinking to $31.8 billion. Although technical indicators show it has 'overshot', no one dares to catch the bottom.

  • The entire market is suffering: 210,000 people faced liquidation, losing nearly $600 million; Ethereum and Dogecoin also plummeted by 8%-10%, falling like dominoes.

Why the sudden crash?

  1. Changes in U.S. policy:

    • The Trump administration implemented a 'Bitcoin strategic reserve' (holding 200,000 bitcoins), but the market is concerned about potential changes in regulatory policies.

    • On March 12, the U.S. will impose tariffs on steel and aluminum, leading to risk-averse funding and increased volatility.

  2. Market sentiment has collapsed:

    • Bitcoin just surged to a new high of $87,000 on March 5, but the trading volume did not keep up, clearly indicating it was 'overheated', allowing large funds to withdraw.

Can it still rise in the long term?

  • Large institutions remain optimistic:

    • Investment bank Bernstein predicts that by the end of 2025, Bitcoin could rise to $200,000 (about 1.44 million RMB).

    • Institutions believe that future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and large companies continuing to hoard coins (like MicroStrategy holding over $41 billion in Bitcoin) are long-term positives.

  • But there are short-term divergences:
    The inflow of new funds is slowing, and retail investors are panic selling, indicating that market confidence has not yet recovered.

What should ordinary people do?

  • Don't act impulsively in the short term:

    • Focus on the $80,000 support level; if it breaks, further declines may follow; to catch a bottom, first check if trading volume rebounds.

  • Long-term view on policies:

    • Keep an eye on the implementation of the U.S. 'Bitcoin reserve' policy and the movements of large institutions (such as who is quietly hoarding coins).

    • After the tax increase on March 12, if the market stabilizes, it could be an entry opportunity.


Bitcoin is currently like a roller coaster: policy news causes a market crash, retail investors panic, but large institutions remain optimistic about the future. Ordinary people shouldn't be scared by short-term volatility, but they also shouldn't blindly follow trends; stay focused on policies and capital movements, and wait for calmer conditions to take action.