Today's market dynamics highlights: Trump: The US economy is entering a "transition period" and refuses to predict the possibility of a recession. Tokens such as APT, SEI and STRK will be unlocked in large amounts this week.

1. Market Overview

1. The total market value of cryptocurrencies on the entire network is 2.75 trillion US dollars, and the 24-hour trading volume is 101.3595 billion US dollars. The market value of Bitcoin (BTC) accounts for 58.3%, and the market value of Ethereum accounts for 8.85%.

2. Today's panic greed index is 20, 7 points lower than yesterday, and the level is extreme panic. The BTC fixed investment index is 57, 12 points higher than yesterday, and small fixed investment is recommended.

2. Detailed explanation of the news

1. Trump: The U.S. economy is entering a "transition period" and refuses to predict the possibility of a recession

On March 10, U.S. President Trump refused to rule out the possibility that the U.S. economy will shrink and enter a recession this year, acknowledging that his sweeping economic agenda may cause short-term turbulence, but he believes it will drive future prosperity. In an interview with Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures program, Trump was asked if he expected a recession this year, and he responded: "I hate predicting things like that. There is a transition period because what we are doing is very big. We are bringing wealth back to the United States, and that's a big thing."

On the other hand, U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick ruled out the possibility of an economic contraction in a televised speech last Sunday. He said on NBC News' Meet the Press: "There will be no recession in the United States. The U.S. economy has never been in recession since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020."

2. Michael Saylor’s article may hint at buying the bottom of Bitcoin

On March 10, Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, posted on his personal social media platform, "If you still have more than one chair, this is your chance." This may be a hint of buying Bitcoin at the bottom, that is, "If you still have "extra chairs" (i.e. funds or resources), then this is a good opportunity to buy Bitcoin."

3. Grayscale Research Director: Bitcoin can appreciate further this year without the need for US strategic reserves

On March 10, Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale Investments, believed that Bitcoin does not need the United States’ strategic reserves to appreciate further this year.

Instead, he expects bitcoin’s price to be pushed higher as adoption increases, predicting it will start to function as a store of value this year, especially amid concerns that Trump’s tariff policies could lead to another surge in inflation. However, bitcoin has still mostly traded in lockstep with risk assets lately.

4. Despite Trump's launch of the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, Bitcoin's volatility still reached its highest level of the year

On March 10, The Block reported that market tensions have continued since Bitcoin price volatility reached its highest level of the year last Monday. According to data from The Block dashboard, since Bitcoin's annualized volatility reached 59.4% on Monday, it has basically stabilized at about 58%. The volatility experienced in the past week is the highest level since December last year.

However, unlike December last year, when the price of Bitcoin continued to rise amid market expectations for a pro-crypto Trump administration, in recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin has continued to fall, falling by more than 15% in the past month.

The recent bitcoin volatility came after Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve and met with top leaders in the digital asset space at a “Crypto Summit,” including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi.

The executive order calls for a comprehensive audit of digital assets held by the federal government, including about 200,000 bitcoins (worth about $17 billion at the time of signing). Trump’s “crypto czar” David Sacks said the U.S. would not sell the bitcoins held in the reserve, but rather treat them as a “digital Ford Knox” (i.e., the national strategic reserve).

5. El Salvador increased its holdings by 5 BTC today, and its total holdings now reach 6111 BTC

On-chain data shows that El Salvador increased his holdings by 5 BTC ($415,000), bringing his total holdings to 6,111 BTC, worth $492.5 million.

6. APT, SEI, STRK and other tokens will be unlocked in large amounts this week

According to Token Unlocks data, this week APT, SEI and STRK will have a one-time large-scale token unlocking, with a total release value of over 50 million US dollars, including:

Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens at 18:00 on March 12, worth approximately $63.22 million, accounting for 1.92% of the circulation;

Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens at 20:00 on March 15, worth approximately $11.18 million, accounting for 1.19% of the circulation;

Starknet (STRK) will unlock 64 million tokens at 8:00 on March 15, worth about $10 million, accounting for 2.33% of the circulation;

Onyxcoin (XCN) will unlock 296 million tokens at 8:00 on March 15, worth approximately US$3.63 million, accounting for 0.9% of the circulation.

3. Market Closing

Crypto market: Bitcoin is currently trading at $81,052.01. ETH price is $2,033.55, and HTX is currently trading at $0.000001656.

IV. Interpretation of Macroeconomic Policies

Less than two months after taking office, Trump has dealt the market a slap in the face. The S&P 500 has erased all of its gains since Trump was elected president, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has even fallen into correction territory. Investors who once cheered Trump's "pro-growth" agenda are now paying for the negative impact of his policies. In the coming weeks, markets will be watching U.S. economic data closely for clues on where the economy is headed.

Wall Street's most accurate analyst: The United States is now only one bad employment data away from a recession. Bank of America chief strategist Hartnett believes that the US economy is on the edge of a cliff, and a bad employment report may push it into the abyss of recession. Friday's "neither up nor down" non-agricultural data can explain the subsequent volatile stock market. He said that the EU's "at all costs" rearmament plan will lead to "astonishing fiscal overspending." And the United States may see new fiscal tightening. By the end of this year, German government bond yields may exceed US Treasury yields.

Goldman Sachs trader: The most painful but possible scenario is a "three-year bear market in the U.S. stock market", repeating the "2001-2003" script. Schiavone, Goldman Sachs' top macro trader, believes that the biggest risk is not a financial crisis, but a worse scenario: a slow, torturous bear market that could last for years. If there is no major credit event to force a market reset, the stock market may repeat the mistakes of 2001-2003 - economic momentum fades, the stock market rebounds weakly, multiple false bottoms appear, and new lows continue to be set.

JPMorgan Chase talks about "huge changes in the global landscape": "American exceptionalism" is declining, but "Europe's rise" is not small. The US economic growth is slowing down, but Europe is beginning to wake up. JPMorgan Chase analyzes that there are three major factors behind this: government spending, price shocks and changes in the supply side. The global economic landscape is being redrawn. However, the trade war launched by the United States may seriously drag down the economic growth of the eurozone and cause the US and global economy to fall into recession.

5. Concept Section

DeFi

Top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio shared three key criteria for evaluating the value of DeFi token investment in the TG group. He believes that although the regulatory environment has improved in recent years, there is still a gap from a feasible investment strategy.

He emphasized that, first, the project team must put the interests of token holders first, which is at least as important as those of equity holders; second, the business model cannot rely entirely on the cryptocurrency speculation cycle to avoid the valuation invalidation caused by a sharp drop in trading volume in a bear market; finally, the team's execution ability is the key, and it is necessary to have technical barriers or excellent execution.

He said that currently only a few agreements meet these criteria and investments will be made when the time is right.

VI. News Outlook

Trump met with U.S. tech leaders, including executives from HP, Intel, IBM and Qualcomm.

The 3rd Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference closed. $XRP